Does the semiconductor industry further the security of Taiwan?
Michał Piotr Malak
Warsaw University, Poland
Taiwan’s “silicone shield” has been protecting the island for years according to the government in Taipei. There is an understanding in Taiwan that its crucial role in global semiconductor manufacturing increases its security as both the United States and China could not afford to lose supplies from Taiwan. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is responsible for producing over half of all semiconductors in the world and over 90% of the most advanced ones. The whole world depends on Taiwan's production of semiconductors, however, no country is more dependent on Taiwan in this regard than China. China is the largest consumer of semiconductors and it relies on TSMC to cover 70% of its deficit in producing these components. However, with growing investments in the United States and especially in China in this sector the position of Taiwan as the linchpin in global electronics production seems to be threatened. Additionally, with growing Chinese nationalism there is doubt whether an economic interdependence can seriously protect the island. This paper will attempt to answer the question “Can Taiwan rally on its semiconductor industry to further its security?”. Using the interdependence theory this paper will show how and why Taiwan has purposefully invested in this industry for years hoping to create such a shield and strengthen its international position.
Nuclear-Deterrence and Conventional Conflict between India and Pakistan
Dr. Ekta Manhas, Abhigya Langeh
Central University of Jammu, India
The India-Pakistan conflict is one of the most important flashpoints in the South Asian geopolitical arena. The two nuclear-powered neighbours have been embroiled in a prolonged dispute over several issues with a complex historical context. While India has formally adopted the No First Use (NFU) policy in its nuclear doctrine, the efficacy of this policy is currently under intense scrutiny. There is a growing debate about replacing NFU with strategic ambiguity.
The South Asian nuclear dynamics contradict neo-realist deterrence, conflict stabilisation, and war prevention explanations. The ongoing debate on a potential change in India's nuclear doctrine is rooted in the failure of the existing policy to deter Pakistan from engaging in sub-conventional warfare and limited conventional conflicts against India.
This paper argues that the proposed shift in India's NFU doctrine is primarily influenced by domestic political dynamics rather than strategic considerations. Accordingly, this study aims to evaluate the possible implications of this shift in the nuclear doctrine on the future of (sub)conventional conflicts between India and Pakistan and its implications for South Asia.
Wings for Middle Powers between Eurasia and the West: Turkey’s Drone Diplomacy in the Russo-Ukrainian War and the Quest for Strategic Autonomy
Dr. Riccardo Gasco1, Dr. Samuele C.A. Abrami2, Dr. Alessandra Russo3
1University of Bologna, Italy; 2UCSC, Milan; 3UCSC, Milan
The Russo-Ukrainian War has highlighted the major role of third-country military supplies in tipping the scales of conflicts. Unmanned military technology is a spearheader of this effect, as shown by the case of Turkish armed drones. Research has assessed the impact of UAVs in symmetrical inter-state conflicts. However, less has been done in tackling the nexus between domestic politics and international security. This paper argues that the Russo-Ukrainian conflict was not just a catalyst moment in Turkey’s successful “drone diplomacy”, but also a litmus test against the commonplace of emerging middle powers as second-tier players in military competition. This becomes clear when looking at the overall expansion of Turkish military industry in terms of technological development, esport and political cooperation from the Horn of Africa to the Caucasus, till the Gulf Countries. Therefore, the enduring industrial exchange and military cooperation pre-dating the war between Moscow and Kyiv unveil Turkey’s strategy, demonstrating the emergence of a new paradigm of middle powers’ quest to achieve a greater status. In this sense, expanding the focus also to the growing interest in AI and emerging military technologies in general is crucial to detect how new dynamics are shaping the intermingling nature of policy making and military industry’s relations. Overall, this paper aims to open new inquiries and shed light on how a long-term and state-led plan for the development of high-end military technologies needs to balance between a quest for strategic autonomy, grand-strategy objectives and dependence on both external buyers and suppliers.
Conflict in Ukraine as a case of deportation and forced displacement of children in armed conflicts
Aleksandra Anna Konopka
University of Warsaw, Poland
Since the beginning of Russia's aggression against Ukraine in 2014, evidence has been collected on major international crimes (core crimes) committed against Ukrainian children (e.g., the war crime of using children in armed conflict). In addition, evidence of illegal deportations of children from Ukraine has been collected since February 2022. Taking children away from their families or care facilities and forcibly transferring them to Russian families is widely regarded as a reprehensible act of violence. Under wartime conditions, such actions can be classified as a war crime and, under additional conditions, also as a crime against humanity or genocide. Despite the numerous studies (UNICEF, UNHCR, Save the children) that have appeared over the past year, there is no monograph that systematically presents the problem of deportation and displacement of children in armed conflict. Given the terminological discrepancies that exist between the terms "deportation" and "forced displacement," it is necessary to clarify them and delineate the framework for outlawing/criminalizing the actions or negligence they describe. The timeliness and importance of the issue was confirmed by the International Criminal Court's arrest warrants issued against the President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin and the Russian Ombudswoman for Children - Maria Lvova-Belova (in terms of deportation and violated children's rights). It is worth noting that despite the numerous crimes committed in Ukraine during the ongoing conflict, it was this one that the ICTY considered particularly heinous, and therefore chose it as the basis for the responsibility of the above-mentioned individuals.
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