Conference Program

Session
FA03: War in Ukraine and Its Implication to Liberal International Order
Time:
Friday, 26/July/2024:
9:00am - 10:30am

Session Chair: Prof. Cynthia J Buckley, University of Illinois, Urbana Champaign
Session Chair / Discussant: Prof. Dorota Heidrich, University of Warsaw
Location: Room 222

Auditorium Building Krakowskie Przedmieście 26/28

Panel

Presentations

The Russian aggression against Ukraine and its impact on the significance of the prohibition of the use of force in international relations

Prof. Dorota Heidrich

University of Warsaw/Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Poland

This paper, drawing on the constructivist approach to creation and dissemination of international norms in the international community, claims that the Russian full-scale aggression against Ukraine launched on 24.02.2022 was a blatant violation of the rules of legitimate and legal use of force that the international community has witnessed at least since the end of the Cold War.

In this context, it is important to look at the impact the Russian attack had on the significance of the prohibition of the use of force in international relations. Has it led to its withering by the fact that the UN members never unilaterally condemned Russia for its conduct? Or, perhaps, a reinterpretation of the lawfulness of the use of force has taken place? The prohibition of the use of force introduced in the UN Charter had crucially beneficial effects on states that could not fight wars for lack of military potential and - therefore - poor prospects of winning. Resorting to means of peaceful resolution of international disputes gave them a better chance to achieve the overall foreign policy gains. Why then has there not been a unilateral condemnation of the Russian actions, especially among the less significant representatives of the Global South?



Rising Power, Conflicts, and the International Order: India’s Perspective on the Wars in Ukraine and Gaza.

Dr. Krzysztof Marcin Zalewski

The Michał Boym Institute for Asian and Global Studies, Poland

The proposed paper delves into India's intricate stance regarding the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza. It offers an analysis of the foreign policy challenges faced by India, a rising regional power with global aspirations, in the context of the rapidly evolving international order.

India proudly asserts its commitment to the foundational principles of the rules-based liberal international order established after World War II. This framework is deemed essential for fostering Indian economic growth and social development. Although Indian policymakers advocate for a reform of this system to better represent the legitimate interests of the Global South, but without undermining its fundamental principles.

The imperative of upholding the liberal international order, as envisioned by India, encounters challenges from other considerations. The principle of strategic autonomy, a keen interest in maintaining a balance of power in Eurasia, and short-term economic and political gains push India toward adopting a nuanced stance on the wars in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, characterized as local or regional conflicts by New Delhi.

This paper conducts a thorough analysis of both declarations and tangible actions undertaken by the Indian government and its broader policy and economic community. Employing a realist approach to international relations, it not only serves as a fitting analytical tool but also aligns with the prevailing perspective on the nature of international relations in India. By adopting this paradigm, the paper aims to unravel the complexities of India's foreign policy decisions in the face of shifting global dynamics of power.



African states towards the war in Ukraine - implications for the liberal international order

Prof. Kamil Zajaczkowski

University of Warsaw, Poland

The presentation will aim to show the position of African countries towards the war in Ukraine and the implications of this state of affairs not only in the context of the foreign policies of individual countries but, above all, in a global perspective. Because the war in Ukraine is not only local and regional. It should also be considered, on the one hand, in the context of great powers competition and, on the other hand, African countries building their position in the international arena. Referring to the rivalry between great powers, as during the pandemic, Russia is using the war in Ukraine to strengthen its position on the continent while simultaneously presenting the West and its actions related to the war as ineffective and unfair (neo-colonialism factor). It strives to build an anti-Western community based on anti-Western values. In a broader sense, it means a "global battle of narratives" for leadership in the non-Western world.



The War in Ukraine and the New Russian Emigration

Chair(s): Prof. Cynthia Buckley (Universdity of Illinois Urbana-Champaign)

The invasion of Ukraine has radically changed the migration environment in Russia. Following the USSR dissolution, the RF has evolved from a country in a deep economic and social crisis, losing its professional and academic elites in the 1990s to a medium-developed state both sending and receiving elite migrants and acting as a migrant transit country during the first two decades of the current century. Losing elite migrants to the higher developed countries, Russia was at least partially substituting for their loss through the immigration from the less developed states, primarily within the post Soviet space. The impact of the pull factors of migration has increased while that of the push factors – decreased.

The beginning of the war in February 2022 resulted in the break up of relations with the Global North returned the situation to a crisis level, with the push factors of migration (such as the deteriorating political situation, the sharp disagreements with the governmental policies among the particular segments of society, the unwillingness of many to serve in the military, the fear of losing a job and a source of income etc.) coming to the forefront.

Panel participants consider the current migration trends, their impact on the demographic, political, and socio-economic development of the RF, and discuss scale and characteristics of the newly-forming Russian immigrant communities in various countries and regions of the world.

 

Papers

 

Post-Invasion Movement from Russia: Reception, Stepwise Migration and Return Potential in Neighboring States

Prof. Cynthia Buckley
University of Illinois

Estimates indicate that more than a million citizens of Russia have left the country since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Media reports in the fall of 2023 highlighted a return flow of citizens back into Russia. However, details on the returnee population's size, composition, or intended duration are rare. How have outmigration, return, composition, and destination changed over time? What precisely are the effects of increases in long-term departures from Russia for neighboring destination states and Russia Itself? Employing available data and direct and indirect demographic estimation techniques, I seek a critical examination of plausible levels and compositional change in outmigration from 2022 through early 2024 and their impact on Russia's resident population. Focusing on three neighboring destination states (Kazakhstan, Armenia, and Georgia), I examine patterns of stepwise migration by Russian migrants and highlight changes in public reception attitudes, visa policy discussions, and relations with Russia in core destination states. Findings highlight the importance of structural context in assessing potential returnees to Russia. Diminishing options to use neighboring states in stepwise migration, Russia's possible policy approaches to encourage return (linking residence with home ownership, other forms of capital, and taxation), and increasing limitations at destinations will likely prove powerful incentives for many to return to Russia. However, the effects of these factors may be weakest among young adults and entrepreneurially motivated Russians in neighboring states, returnees most valuable to the Russian state.

 

The Contested Agency of Russia’s Diasporas? Examining Russia's Anti-War Migration in Latin America

Prof. Vladimir Rouvinski
Universidad Icesi

Mindful of the role of Russian diaspora elsewhere but particularly in Europe, following Russia’s return to Latin America, the Kremlin actively engages Russian nationals residing here to advance its regional agenda through loyal diaspora organizations. Furthermore, the Russian government strategically leverages funds from Rossotrudnichestvo to sponsor cultural initiatives and literature events, aiming to present a positive image of Putin's Russia and involving Latin American political elites in these activities.

Russia's war in Ukraine has brought new developments globally, prompting thousands of Russians to leave the country. Visa-free travel to Latin America for Russian passport holders has resulted in a remarkable increase in Russian nationals arriving in the region. Specifically, countries like Mexico and Brazil have witnessed a doubling of Russian arrivals since February 2022. These newcomers do not align with Putin's policies, presenting alternative narratives that challenge the Kremlin's influence in the region. This shift challenges the dominance of embassy-dependent migrant organizations. In this context and despite existing gaps in the local social infrastructures of independent Russian diasporas, there is clear evidence of an evolving scenario in the region. This paper aims to characterize this changing landscape, providing an empirically grounded, transnational perspective on the contested agency of Russian diasporas and their impact on the Latin American countries' stances on Ukraine conflict.