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FA01: Blocs, Groups, and Disorder
Panel
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Session Abstract | ||
The panel examines new grouping layered with old entanglements such as the BRICS, the Global South, and the assertive European Union. It examines the complex interdependence but its different implications in different parts of the world, creating disruptions and discord. | ||
Presentations | ||
"Russia's Invasion of Ukraine and Potential Implications for Africa University of the Gambia, Gambia The Russian invasion of Ukraine has garnered global attention due to its geopolitical significance. As military actions intensify, the crisis extends beyond the immediate region, impacting various parts of the world. This abstract focuses on the potential implications of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the African continent as it has the potential to affect Africa in several ways, primarily through diplomatic, economic, and security channels. Firstly, diplomatic relations may be strained as countries in Africa align themselves with either side or adopt neutral positions. Economically, Africa may experience ripple effects due to disruptions in global trade and energy markets. Russia, a major player in the energy sector, could influence global energy prices, impacting African nations dependent on oil imports. Additionally, economic sanctions imposed on Russia may affect African countries that have strong economic ties with Moscow. Security concerns also arise as the conflict has the potential to divert global attention from other pressing issues, allowing for the exacerbation of existing security challenges in Africa. Furthermore, the conflict may indirectly affect Africa through refugee movements and changes in global power dynamics. Increased displacement from Ukraine and neighboring regions could strain international humanitarian efforts, potentially diverting resources away from other regions, including Africa. This abstract underscores the interconnectedness of global events and their impact on regions seemingly distant from the immediate conflict zone. As the situation unfolds, African nations need to monitor developments closely and adapt their diplomatic and strategic approaches to navigate the potential challenges posed by the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Is European Union anti-fragile in the time of Global Disorder? Warsaw University - Centre for Europe The global disorder is the biggest problem of international politics - not only for coutries, but also for international ogranizations. The European Union has a very unique structure being more than an organization but less than a state. Since 2005 when the vision of a federal state collapsed after two referenda (in France and in Holland) the EU concluded the new Lisbon Treaty in 2007 but was not able to move the project forward after that as being under permanent pressure. One crisis followed another: war in Geogria, eurozone crises, Arab Spring and migration crisis on the South, hibrid war in Crimea, pandemic COVID-19 and finally Russian invasion on Ukraine. The purpose of this paper is to analyse the responses of the EU for all these events - lessons learned and actions taken - in order to reflect on antifragile. The paper aims to see if the notion of antifragile, implemented by Nasim Taleb in his book "Antifragile" can be useful in analysing the current situation in the European Union and its member states, disturbed by the global disorder and the series of crises, but on their way to discuss the reforms in the block and its future enlargement by Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia and the Western Balkans. Voice of Global South for a Shared Future: Issues and Challenges Pondicherry Univeristy, India India organised two Virtual Summits of the Global South on January 12-13 and November 17, 2023. One hundred twenty-five countries attended the virtual summits. The Voice of Global South Summit were India's effort to provide a platform to discuss concerns, interests and priorities affecting developing countries and exchange ideas and solutions. The theme of the closing session was 'Global South: Together for One Future'. Since the Global South is diverse, unity of voice and purpose is complex, and the possibility is the emergence of different coalition combinations depending on circumstances and national interests. Countries may prefer to partner with India or China based on their specific national interests. For example, countries that want to expand their trade and investment opportunities may prefer to partner with China’s BRI because China's economic base is much larger than India's.On the other hand, India's pragmatic approach is more attractive to those who want to negotiate with the developed West to make international economic and financial institutions and practices favourable to their economic growth and development. The visible trend is that both India and China are engaged in their efforts to restructure the governance architecture of liberal internationalism in their distinct way. Recent events such as the International Monetary Fund/World Bank annual meetings, the Belt and Road Forum meeting in Beijing, and Israel's war with Hamas have revealed the differences in their approaches. What prevails among countries in the Global South is not the beauty of partnership but the intricacies and complexities of multiple alignments. Essequibo – the Falklands of the 21st century? University of Warsaw, Poland Although the territorial conflict between Venezuela and Guyana has been going on since the 19th century, for many years it seemed to be frozen. Last year, however, the tensions between Caracas and Georgetown suddenly increased. To a degree it resembles the conflict over the Falkland Islands/Malvinas, which also escalated in waves, ultimately leading to war between Argentina and the United Kingdom in the early 1980s. Both cases have many common features, but at the same time it is impossible to ignore significant differences between the situation in the 1980s and today. This paper looks at the two conflicts, trying to answer the following research questions: 1. What was the path to war between Argentina and the United Kingdom, and to what extent does it resemble the current situation between Venezuela and Guyana? 2. What was/is the role of referendums in the two conflicts? 3. What was/is the role of petroleum in the two conflicts? 4. What has been the position of other Latin American countries towards the conflicts and whose claims have they supported? 5. What has been the position and attitude of the US towards the two conflicts and what can be expected in this respect in the near future? 6. Could the conflict between Venezuela and Guyana turn into a regular war, as in the case of Argentina and the United Kingdom? The adopted methodology uses a contextual approach and a comparative method. |