Conference Agenda
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Thematic Session: Low-Carbon Transitions in Asia
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According to IEA-EDGAR CO2 data released in 2025, Asia’s share of global CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion substantially increased from 25% in 1990 to 53% in 2024. While emissions in EU27 countries rose by approximately 1.7 times over the same period, emissions in Asian countries increased by about 3.8 times due to rapid economic growth driven by energy-intensive industrialisation and a continued heavy reliance on fossil fuels. Given Asia’s dominant and growing contribution to global carbon emissions, achieving global net-zero targets will be unattainable without substantial and sustained mitigation efforts in Asia.
The surge in fossil fuel consumption and associated carbon emissions has generated significant environmental and political pressures, which collectively prompted governments to recognise the necessity of transitioning toward low-carbon development pathways. Environmental problems, notably air pollution, became increasingly visible and difficult to ignore. Moreover, as global temperatures rise, the region has experienced more severe and frequent extreme weather events that inflicted serious socioeconomic damage, underscoring Asia’s vulnerability to climate change. At the same time, as Asia emerged as the largest contributor to global carbon emissions, high-emitting countries in the region faced growing international pressure to abate emissions and avoid repeating the high-pollution development trajectories taken by earlier industrialised regions.
Consequently, most Asian countries have articulated climate commitments through nationally determined contributions (NDCs) and net-zero pledges, and have established a range of policies to support these climate targets and facilitate the transition to low-carbon economies. They have also repeatedly updated the emissions reduction targets and policies to make them more ambitious. However, implementation gaps, defined as the divergence between a country’s target emissions and the actual emissions under current policies, remain prevalent across the region. Despite increasingly ambitious commitments, the translation of pledges into tangible progress has often been slow. Shortcomings in legislative action, policy enforcement, technology deployment, and financial investment have limited actual emissions reductions, resulting in outcomes that fall short of NDC targets or even increases in emissions.
Given that many Asian countries are emerging or developing economies, concerns over economic growth constitute the primary driver of the implementation gap and a major obstacle to the low-carbon transition, alongside other constraints, such as limited technological and institutional capacity, political conflicts, and policy instability. That is, governments may be reluctant to adopt more stringent low-carbon policies, as they fear that economy-wide, fundamental and rapid transitions would threaten their fossil fuel-based economic structure and cause considerable economic losses. However, the continued expansion of carbon-intensive infrastructure creates long-term carbon lock-in, whereby increasing dependence on high-emission technologies makes future transitions significantly more costly. Besides, recent regulatory trends in global trade, such as the carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) and emissions standards, indicate that carbon-intensive export-oriented economies may face declining competitiveness in international markets. Thus, Asian countries are required to reduce the carbon emissions of their products to maintain market access and attract investment. Furthermore, a low-carbon transition could contribute to lowering macroeconomic risks for some Asian countries susceptible to price volatility in imported fossil fuels by enhancing energy security. Low-carbon energy sources, particularly renewable energy, offer a more stable and domestically available alternative, thereby reducing dependence on imports and stabilising energy prices.
In conclusion, a low-carbon transition is essential to achieving a sustainable economy in Asia, as it could enable continued growth while mitigating climate-related risks and strengthening energy security. For Asian countries, the transition to low-carbon development represents not only an environmental imperative but also a strategic pathway to ensure long-term economic resilience and sustainability. Therefore, governments are expected to assess the current implementation gaps and improve or redesign low-carbon policies to make them more ambitious and deliver more effective decarbonisation outcomes.
Against this backdrop, this session will take a deep dive into Asian countries’ progress in the low-carbon transition. In particular, the session participants will discuss:
(a) The gaps between current mitigation efforts and net-zero pathways; (b) The challenges that cause these gaps; (c) Low-carbon transition and sustainable economy (in terms of economic growth and energy security); (d) Internal and external factors influencing low-carbon transition; (e) Possible policies and regional and international cooperation to support Asian countries’ low-carbon transition. | ||
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Asian Energy Demand Growth and the Potential to Meet Carbon Dioxide Emission Targets National University of Singapore, London School of Economics and Political Science Efforts to stabilise climate change have prompted increasingly stringent emissions reduction objectives under the Paris Agreement, yet a substantial gap often exists between stated policy ambitions and trajectories suggested by current energy consumption patterns. This paper assesses whether eight major Asian economies can meet their 2030 NDC targets and net-zero pledges by analysing sectoral energy demand dynamics across 65 years of data. Estimates from the energy demand modelling reveals that income elasticities follow partially an inverse-U pattern, with most sectors maintaining elasticities at or above unity. Japan is the only country exhibiting negative income elasticities across multiple sectors (i.e., where energy consumption declines as incomes rise) and is the only country projected to achieve meaningful reductions in carbon dioxide emissions by 2050. This evidence highlights the need to better understand ways to accelerate the transition toward negative income elasticities across sectors. Meanwhile, price elasticities remain low, limiting the effectiveness of price-based instruments. Most countries will fall short of their NDCs and net-zero pledges. Renewable energy targets appear achievable, yet renewables often supplement rather than displace fossil fuels in expanding systems, underscoring that Asia's climate challenge requires wholesale transformation at unprecedented speed and scale. Low-Carbon Development in Asia: A Comparison of Driving Factors 1Renmin University of China, China; 2Korea University, Republic of Korea; 3Renmin University of China, China; 4Meijo University, Japan; 5Kyoto University, Japan; 6Cambridge Econometrics, United Kingdoms Asia accounted for over 59.8% of the world's CO2 emissions in 2023. Prioritizing production efficiency and technological innovation to foster low-carbon development is crucial for Asia in mitigating CO2 emissions. This paper used data from 2000 to 2023 to evaluate efficiency improvement and technological progress in ten Asian economies. A decomposition study of these regions could provide information for multi-regional cooperation in carbon reduction. First, the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) analysis showed that economic development is the main factor contributing to the increase in CO2 emissions. Population growth also contributes positively, except for Japan. On the contrary, energy intensity is the most significant CO2 reduction factor, except for Vietnam. Second, efficiencies in the studied regions did not improve compared to the rest of the world. Last but not least, the production-theoretical decomposition analysis (PDA) showed that technological progress and efficiency of different inputs or outputs either did not play an important role or offset each other. Our findings indicate that Asian economies share many similarities, which creates opportunities for collaboration and knowledge exchange in low-carbon development as they strive for net-zero emissions. Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency: Contrasting Pathways to Economic Growth and Energy Security 1Graduate School of Energy and Environment (KU-KIST Green School), Korea University, Korea, Republic of (South Korea); 2Department of Food and Resource Economics, Korea University, Korea, Republic of (South Korea) This study examines the structural effects of renewable energy and energy efficiency on economic growth and energy security using a panel of OECD countries over the period 1990–2021. Building on existing structural equation model (SEM)-based studies that examine indirect pathways through household consumption, capital formation, and the trade balance, this paper extends the framework by explicitly incorporating energy security as an additional variable. The empirical results indicate that both renewable energy and energy efficiency influence economic growth primarily through indirect pathways, but different transmission channels. Renewable energy follows an investment-driven pathway and energy efficiency operates through cost-reduction mechanisms. Moreover, energy efficiency contributes to enhanced energy security by lowering fossil fuel import dependence, whereas the effects of renewable energy on energy security are less straightforward and appear to be shaped by structural and temporal factors. Barriers to cost-effective solar deployment: the role of non-hardware factors in South Korea 1Soongsil University, Korea, Republic of (South Korea); 2Korea University, Korea, Republic of (South Korea) The persistently high cost of solar PV installation in South Korea, compared with other countries, raises important questions about the role of non-hardware factors in shaping cost efficiency. This study empirically examines a broad set of determinants, including economies of scale, renewable energy support schemes, delays between project approval and commercial operation, residential setback regulations, and learning-by-doing reflected in project developers’ cumulative experience. We also analyze market structure and competition, captured by the use of Chinese-made modules and the market share of module manufacturers. The findings reveal that these non-hardware factors have a significant impact on installation cost efficiency, highlighting their importance alongside hardware-related costs. The results offer valuable policy insights and underscore the need for more effective institutional and regulatory frameworks to enhance the cost-efficient deployment of solar PV. The impact of Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) on India’s industry and household sectors: A CGE Modelling Approach 1Energy Studies Institute, National University of Singapore, Singapore; 2Centre for Social and Economic Progress The implementation of the EU’s CBAM could have significant implications for developing country exports to the EU due to differences in carbon price levels. This study simulates three carbon tax scenarios, using a recursive dynamic CGE model, to assess the impact of CBAM on India. In the first scenario (PCARBON), a domestic carbon tax is applied to the CBAM-exposed sectors, and the carbon tax revenue is collected by India. In the second scenario (CBAM), the carbon tax is applied only to the EU exports of the CBAM sectors and the carbon tax revenue accrues to the EU. The third scenario (PCARBON+CBAM) combines the above two scenarios, whereby the carbon tax rate on domestic production and EU exports is halved, and the carbon tax revenue is allocated between India and the EU proportionately. The results indicate adverse impacts on GDP in all the above three scenarios, with the extent of impact depending on the carbon tax rate and the carbon tax revenue allocation scheme between the EU and India. A lower carbon tax rate with revenue allocation between India and the EU (PCARBON + CBAM) could help to reduce the adverse effects on the economy and households. Despite the adverse effects domestic carbon pricing could foster the energy transition through the growth of renewables, and could be a significant source of government revenue. The main conclusion of the study is that CBAM could be a cost effective tool to foster carbon pricing and climate mitigation globally. | ||