Conference Agenda

The available scientific evidence shows that the climate system of the Earth is warming rapidly due to human activities, and that related natural disasters, such as heatwaves, heavy rainfall, strong storms, droughts and wildfires have become more frequent or intense in recent decades. Also, observed increases in climate-related disasters have induced an immense toll in human fatalities and enormous direct economic losses (DELs). Additionally, attribution studies increasingly show that human-induced global warming has amplified the likelihood or severity of many major events; and, according to recent reports on climate adaptation, disasters fueled by climate change are already worse than scientists originally predicted.

 

Research findings also indicate that exposure and vulnerability are the main factors determining the impact of climate induced natural disasters. Exposure is expected to increase because, heatwaves will increase in frequency, duration and intensity under all warming scenarios; and extreme precipitation events will become more frequent and more intense across most mid-latitude and moist tropical regions, implying more severe flash floods, river flooding, urban flooding and landslides in mountainous regions, especially in Asia, Europe, East Africa, South America, and parts of North America. Moreover, with high confidence, in many regions, hotter, drier conditions and longer drought cycles will increase fire risk and burned areas, with strongest projected increases in western North America, Mediterranean basin, southwestern South America, Australia and Southern Africa. Regarding Tropical Cyclones (hurricanes, typhoons), with medium to high confidence, the strongest storms (category 4–5) will become more intense, and a higher proportion of storms will reach extreme intensity; moreover, with high confidence, associated rainfalls will increase substantially; and, even when the frequency of global storms may stay the same or decrease, their intensity will reach extreme strength, with higher destructive potential. Changes of Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Risks are projected and indicate that, with very high confidence, rising sea level will increase frequency of coastal flooding, storm surge impacts and saltwater intrusions. Even small Sea-Level Rise increments matter, because a storm surge currently occurring once every 100 years may become annual at +2 °C warming in many coastal regions.

 

On the other hand, research findings have also indicated that economic development tends to be associated with fewer human deaths from climate-related disasters but rising direct economic losses. This points to possible policy avenues to reduce vulnerability to natural disasters.

 

Climate disasters are not only environmental events — they are economic shocks. Therefore, economic policy is central to shaping whether societies become increasingly vulnerable or increasingly resilient.

 

Usually, natural hazards are interconnected and therefore need to be managed jointly to avoid more severe impacts. This creates additional challenges for designing policies that reduce exposure and vulnerability, especially when the hazards amplify or reinforce one another.

 

Analyzing and discussing economic and social policies to reduce vulnerability and exposure to climate-change-induced natural disasters could lead to large social and economic gains in the future. To environmental or natural resource economists this theme represents not only an extremely relevant issue due to the theoretical and practical questions that remain to be answered to improve government and private policies currently used. Also designing and implementing new and more efficient economic policies is essential because they are possibly the only tools capable of correcting market failures behind climate change, mobilizing investment for adaptation and mitigation, protecting vulnerable populations, maintaining macroeconomic stability after disasters, creating incentives for innovation and resilience, coordinating multi-sectoral responses, and ensuring development is sustainable under rising climate risks.