Conference Agenda

This paper studies the optimal allocation of fishery resources under uncertainty by developing a stochastic differential game framework that integrates ecological dynamics,strategic fishing behavior, and policy interventions. We first establish a benchmark deterministic model based on logistic fish population growth and compare outcomes under a social planner, symmetric open-loop equilibrium, and Markov perfect equilibrium. The analysis shows that open-loop strategies lead to overexploitation and the lowest sustainable biomass, while the social planner achieves the highest stock level at the cost of reduced fishing effort and income. In contrast, Markov strategies generate a set of equilibria that balance ecological sustainability and economic returns, yielding higher long-run income and more abundant fish stocks than open-loop outcomes. The model is then extended to incorporate stochastic fluctuations arising from environmental variability and discrete shocks. Continuous stochasticity is modeled through a diffusion term with a power-law structure, allowing us to distinguish linear, sublinear, and superlinear fluctuation regimes.While linear fluctuations do not alter the structure of optimal strategies, non-linear fluctuations shift the equilibrium stock interval: sublinear fluctuations reduce precautionary stock retention, whereas superlinear fluctuations induce more conservative harvesting to hedge against amplified risks. Discrete fluctuations, captured through probabilistic fishing bans, do not change the equilibrium stock interval but increase fishing effort in anticipation of closure risk. Finally, the paper examines taxation and subsidy policies, showing that cost-based interventions primarily shift marginal cost curves and thus influence fishing incentives without fundamentally altering equilibrium structures. Overall, the results highlight the importance of information structure, stochastic risk characteristics, and policy design in achieving resilient and sustainable fishery management.

Invasive species are spreading globally, threatening ecosystems, biodiversity, agriculture, and human health. When efforts to prevent the establishment of invasive species fail, and eradication is not possible, containment becomes necessary to slow or stop the spread of established invaders. A major question is, therefore, how to allocate treatment across space and time to contain the population cost effectively. Here, we examine how to optimize the strategies for slowing the spread of the spongy moth (Lymantria dispar) in North America by utilizing gaps with lower densities of host plants. Around these gaps, managers can apply both bio-pesticides and mating disruption methods using synthetic pheromones to disrupt male mate finding. We develop a spatially explicit model of the moth’s population dynamics, and we develop a novel algorithm that finds the spatial distribution of the two methods that optimize the cost-efficiency over landscapes with non-homogeneous distributions of host plants. Our results show that combining pesticide application and mating disruption around host-plant gaps significantly improves cost efficiency: Optimal treatment prescribes mating disruption in low-density regions nearer the moth-free area and pesticides in higher-density regions nearer the invasion front, almost without combining both methods in the same area. Suboptimal strategies that do not optimize the use of host-plant gaps can result in costs higher by tens to hundreds of percent, emphasizing the critical importance of strategic spatial planning for invasive species containment.

The theoretical literature on the current design of the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) predicts that its Market Stability Reserve (MSR) induces a downward-sloping implicit allowance supply curve in response to anticipated future demand shocks. The latter can for example be induced by announcing climate policies overlapping the EU ETS such as a coal phase-out by one or several member states. This would imply that aggregate emissions increase in response to an announced climate policy and that the MSR exacerbates price responses to anticipated shocks and thereby undermines an important component of market stability. We present the first experimental evidence that an MSR-like supply adjustment mechanism indeed induces a downward-sloping implicit supply function.

Forests are critical for climate mitigation and biodiversity, yet their management is

increasingly threatened by intensifying natural disturbances due to climate change, par-

ticularly forest fires. Anticipating and adapting to these future risks is essential for

sustainable forest management. This study uses a simple theoretical model of forest

transition and management, to examine how ex ante and ex post adaptation strategies,

implemented through land conversion and harvest policies, affect forest management

decisions and carbon storage under forest fire risk. Incorporating risk considerations

leads to more cautious strategies that reduce short-term economic returns but enhance

gains in the long-term. Compared to ex post policies, ex ante adaptation yields globally

higher economic and carbon storage benefits in terms of net present value. Regardless

of damage severity, early adaptation significantly reduces negative effects on both

welfare and carbon storage, highlighting the value of timely risk responses. These

findings highlight the importance of adaptive forest management in responding to

climate-related disturbances.

Rhode Island’s fishery sector is presented as a policy-relevant case study for blue economic development in the United States. We examine its economic performance, structural trends, and environmental footprint, amid climate change, regulatory evolution, and competing ocean uses. The findings offer insights applicable to other regions seeking to balance economic viability, environmental sustainability, and inclusive growth within the blue economy. In 2024, Rhode Island's commercial fishing landings generated 89.126 million dollars in direct output, supporting 1,252 jobs and 62.8 million dollars in labor income, underscoring the sector’s importance to the state’s coastal economy. Beyond the estimated direct effects, fishing activity stimulates significant indirect and induced impacts across seafood processing, food services, retail, housing, healthcare, utilities, and marine support industries. Using an input–output framework, we estimate that a one-dollar increase in commercial fishery output generates an additional 0.19 dollars in economy-wide output, alongside a 7% increase in labor income and a 6% increase in employment. Environmental analysis indicates that the sector generates approximately 29.1 million CO2-equivalents under the 20-year global warming potential metric, with upstream activities accounting for just over half of total emissions. Despite its economic significance, the sector has become increasingly vulnerable to external shocks, resulting in declining landings and employment since 2020. All together, the results highlight the need for an integrated economic and environmental policy approach to support the long-term resilience of fisheries.

The marketization of ecosystem services (MES) refers to institutional arrangements that assign economic value to ecosystem services (ES) and enable their exchange through market mechanisms. Its core aim is to incentivize the protection and sustainable provision of ES. A distinctive form of MES, which can be termed government-led ES market development, exists in China: the government plays a constitutive role in building markets—defining property rights, establishing trading rules, and enrolling diverse actors into market-like transactions—while also participating directly as a market actor through state-owned enterprises. Consequently, the behaviour of subnational governments plays a decisive role in determining the success or failure of such markets, yet why some proactively support and engage in MES while others remain passive is poorly understood. To address this gap, we developed a “capacity–pressure–incentive” framework and applied fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis to 31 Chinese provinces. Three findings emerge. First, no single condition independently explains subnational support; capacity, pressure, and incentive operate configurally. Second, configurations with all three dimensions form the most robust pathway to high support; when two dimensions are present, only “capacity–pressure” and “pressure–incentive” yield high support, while “capacity–incentive” does not; configurations with only one dimension consistently result in non-high support. Third, pressure plays a core yet conditional role—its effectiveness depends on combination with either capacity or incentive. Building on these findings, this study offers a novel perspective on the feasibility of government-led MES by centering on subnational government behaviour, while providing an analytical framework applicable to diverse stakeholders in ES governance.

Reforestation is central to Chile’s climate and biodiversity commitments, yet its spatial allocation generates heterogeneous economic and social consequences across rural regions. This study develops an integrated InVEST–MRIO framework to quantify the biophysical shocks and distributional economic impacts of reforestation strategies in the Río Bueno basin. Using six spatial scenarios covering approximately 23,500 ha, the InVEST model simulates changes in CO₂ sequestration, water regulation, and phosphorus retention alongside the foregone agricultural output associated with land-use conversion. These biophysical outputs are transferred into a regionally disaggregated MRIO model (updated from 2014 to 2022 using the biproportional RAS method) to estimate effects on sectoral output, value added, employment, and inequality.

The scenarios reveal a clear Pareto frontier: greater ecosystem-service gains occur only at higher agricultural opportunity costs. In the comparative-static establishment phase, reforestation can reduce regional income inequality, but only when spatial targeting ensures that labor-intensive restoration activities compensate for losses in land-intensive agricultural income. Crucially, across all scenarios the poorest households remain the most exposed.

These findings underscore that equitable outcomes depend critically on where land is converted and on the balance between biophysical gains and socioeconomic vulnerabilities. The integrated InVEST–MRIO approach thus provides a robust basis for designing spatially targeted restoration pathways aligned with Chile’s reforestation objective.