Conference Agenda

This article investigates how national income convergence, redistribution, and climate change will shape the world distribution of income until 2050, using a novel source of data on global inequality before and after taxes. Despite ongoing convergence in national income, the global bottom 50% post-tax income share only marginally

rises from 9.7% to 11.1% under "business-as-usual", while the top 1% share remains constant. Yet, if countries were to adopt the most effective redistribution policies implemented by the best performer in their respective region, the global bottom 50% income share could increase to over 17%. Redistribution of pre-tax incomes

account for 70% of this increase, with the remainder due to post-tax redistribution. Climate change is set to exacerbate inequalities, potentially offsetting all the increase in the global bottom 50% share since 1980.

Climate change may widen inequality by reshaping access to opportunity. We study this mechanism in rural China, where agricultural shocks require immediate labor responses and upward mobility is mediated by high-stakes examination. Exploiting administrative records from China's National College Entrance Examination paired with granular meteorological data, we document that agricultural water stress during high stakes examination preparation significantly reduces the performance and college admission probability of rural students while leaving their urban peers unaffected. We identify the household labor reallocation channel as the primary mechanism, finding that shocks increase the time students spend at home and disproportionately impair scores in subjects requiring time intensive preparation. Beyond the buffering role of deep seated cultural traditions and credit access, our analysis reveals that the integration of rural areas into global manufacturing markets following the WTO accession served as the pivotal mechanism for decoupling educational opportunity from climatic risk.

Mozambique is highly vulnerable to climate change, facing frequent extreme weather shocks and heavy reliance on subsistence agriculture. Using four waves of household

consumption surveys (2008–2023) matched with district-level weather data, we study how shocks affect consumption. Extreme weather during the growing season alters expenditure patterns, though households partly smooth total consumption. High temperature and precipitation shocks reduce spending mainly below the median, with households offsetting losses through home production. Poorer households, however, struggle to compensate under low-precipitation shocks, lowering consumption. Using 2019–2023 data, we find social protection mitigates adverse impacts among beneficiaries despite limited coverage. Results highlight the importance of social protection as climate risks intensify.

Global warming reshapes the probability distribution of weather events, increasing exposure to heat along both the extensive and the intensive margin. Understanding the consequences of climate change requires studying the implications of such weather patterns. To advance this understanding, we propose an economic life-cycle model that structures the effect of heat on lifetime utility. Agents face mortality risk linked to stochastic temperature and respond through endogenous adaptation and health investment. These choices generate heterogeneous vulnerabilities to heat. We calibrate the model to U.S. data on health, income, and climate and show that global warming imposes regressive welfare losses that intensify with age, as poorer and older individuals face higher utility losses. In contrast, disbelief in climate change produces a progressive welfare pattern by reducing adaptation among richer agents. The paper highlights how differences in resources, physiological resilience, and beliefs jointly shape the unequal burden of global warming.