Conference Agenda

This paper provides causal evidence that NGO campaigns influence land-use decisions in Brazil’s soy and beef supply chains—two of the leading drivers of tropical deforestation globally. Using a shift-share design that exploits quasiexogenous variation in campaign timing and firm–municipality trade linkages, I find that municipalities that trade with firms that are targeted by NGOs significantly reduce deforestation, primarily by deterring forest-to-cattle conversion. Campaigns also promote reallocation from cattle grazing to soy cultivation, indicating a shift toward more intensive and economically productive land uses. These transitions are accompanied by measurable gains in land productivity, suggesting that NGO pressure not only curbs extensive deforestation but also enhances the efficiency of existing agricultural areas. The results underscore the persistent influence of civil society in shaping environmental outcomes, even after formal supply-chain commitments are in place, and highlight the broader potential of reputational governance to complement state regulation in managing global environmental externalities.

Sanctions for environmental infractions aim to punish perpetrators and deter future offenses. Social networks are important for mediating both objectives, yet are often overlooked by researchers and policymakers who design sanction regimes. With a rich panel dataset of millions of rancher-to-rancher cattle transactions in Brazil, we assessed how rare but costly sanctions for illegal deforestation propagated through transaction networks of ranchers who cleared forest. We found that sanctions did not significantly change ranchers’ network structure, suggesting that ranchers continued to access similar supply chains even after receiving an economic embargo. However, networks were important for deterring deforestation. Controlling for deforestation events in the network, the average rancher reduced forest clearing by 17.3 Ha/year after their network connection was sanctioned, and by 5.7 Ha/year after a connection-of-a-connection was sanctioned. Given the much larger number of connections-of-connections in the network, 84% of total avoided deforestation was on these properties. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for network-related spillovers when designing environmental policies and research. We also provide unique insight into the importance of distant connections for amplifying the total deterrence effects of environmental policies, extending beyond previous studies that measured spillovers only on direct spatial neighbors.

We examine the relationship between agricultural land potential and conflict across Sub-

Saharan Africa, where such conflicts are widespread. To address endogeneity, we construct a

plausibly exogenous, crop-specific indicator of agricultural land potential based on a weather-

driven crop suitability model. The indicator leverages variation in weather and soil conditions to

capture changes in crop-growing potential. Using a 0.1° grid-cell dataset covering the period

1997–2023 and conflict data from ACLED, we focus on overall crop and climate suitability for

50 crops grown across Africa. We find that long-term increases in agricultural land potential

are associated with increases in conflict within countries. By using crop-specific, weather-

based suitability measures rather than realized production, we provide new evidence on the

climate–agriculture–conflict nexus.