Conference Agenda

This paper examines how housing markets respond to nearby floods that do not cause direct property damage, and whether these responses differ across more- and less deprived neighbourhoods in England between 2010 and 2018. We find that nearby floods increase time on the market across all areas, but price responses differ sharply by neighbourhood deprivation. In more-deprived areas, floods lead to both longer selling times and significant price declines, consistent with stigma-related risk demand reductions and weaker seller bargaining power. In less-deprived areas, selling times increase but prices remain largely unchanged, indicating adjustment through slower matching rather than price changes. These responses imply stigma-related discounts of about 3.8 percent in more-deprived neighbourhoods and 1.2 percent in less-deprived ones.

Extreme heat is increasing in frequency and intensity, with disproportionate risks for clinically and socially vulnerable groups. New Zealand lacks national, metric-sensitive estimates of short-term heat–mortality associations, including comparisons of composite heat stress (Wet Bulb Global Temperature) versus standard air temperature. To quantify same-day effects of heat on mortality, we linked weather station observation data to administrative mortality records for all deceased individuals in New Zealand. Both Wet Bulb Global Temperature (WBGT) and air temperature (daily mean, maximum, minimum) were used. Same-day effects were estimated using time-stratified case-crossover models with month×weekday strata, for four windows: (i) all-cause mortality, full year; (ii) non-injury mortality, full year; (iii)-(iv) the corresponding warm-season (Oct–Mar) subsets. We additionally examined discrete exposure bins, distributed lag non-linear curves (lags 0–7), and heterogeneity by location, sex, and age. Across the daily summaries, the mean series yields the largest effects. Over the full year, all-cause mortality rises by 0.44% per +1 °C for WBGT(mean) versus 0.39% per +1 °C for Temperature(mean). Similar results are identified for non-injury mortality. Warm-season effects are larger: For all-cause mortality the risk increases by about 0.55% (with similar figures for air temperature and only non-injury mortality. Across samples, WBGT estimates are consistently larger than temperature-only measures. Scaling the estimates by average death counts implies that a uniform +1 °C increase in mean WBGT would correspond to approximately 140 additional all-cause deaths and 110 non-injury deaths per year, and about 85 and 70 extra deaths per warm season, respectively.

Thousands of studies estimate climate change impacts related to temperature, but temperature is rarely measured at the exact location where impacts occur. Empirical work uses proxies such as closest station readings or estimates from gridded data products like PRISM. Measurement error introduced from this practice are routinely ignored. When acknowledged, it is typically assumed small in magnitude and classically (i.i.d. normal) distributed, implying impact estimates are modestly attenuated toward zero. This assumption is formally examined by treating temperature readings at each U.S. weather stations as ground truth, then predicting daily mean temperature there using various proxies. This allows precise identification of measurement errors in an otherwise error-free relationship. The results contradict the standard assumption. These errors exhibit strong spatial and temporal components, and, often, are large in magnitude. While proxy measurement errors typically cause downward bias, overestimates are common. Estimation problems are concentrated where attention focuses—the temperature distribution’s tails.

This paper examines the impact of heat stress on firm-level labour productivity across 23 advanced economies from 2000 to 2021. Combining high-resolution weather data with balance sheet information, we find that both an increase in the number of high-temperature days and the occurrence of heatwaves lead to reduced labour productivity. This effect is substantial, more pronounced in smaller and less productive firms, and is exacerbated by longer heatwaves, high humidity, and low wind speeds. We find evidence of partial adaptation: firms in warmer climates and those with prior heatwave exposure suffer smaller losses from subsequent temperature extremes. However, the scope of current adaptation remains limited: higher temperatures relative to an already warm average result in more significant productivity losses, and there is no evidence of adaptation to severe extreme temperatures. These results underscore the relevance of both gradual and acute climate impacts for economic performance and underscore the need for targeted adaptation policies to mitigate the long-term growth impacts of rising temperatures.