Conference Agenda
Overview and details of the sessions of this conference. Please select a date or location to show only sessions at that day or location. Please select a single session for detailed view (with abstracts and downloads if available).
Please note that all times are shown in the time zone of the conference. The current conference time is: 24th Aug 2026, 01:48:45am WEST
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Daily Overview |
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Egg-Timer: Climate Finance and Carbon Policy Location: D-110 Session Chair: Jeroen van den Bergh, Autonomous University of Barcelona | |
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Climate Action in a Geofragmented World: Do Armed Conflicts Reduce Countries' Performance Under Climate Agreements ? Laboratoire d'Économie d'Orléans (LEO), Université Clermont Auvergne, France, France This paper investigates whether and to what extent armed conflict undermines countries’ ability to comply with international climate commitments. We introduce a novel target-based indicator of climate performance—the emissions gap—defined as the deviation between realized greenhouse gas emissions and nationally pledged targets under climate agreements. Using a panel of 135 countries from 1997 to 2024, we combine entropy balancing, instrumental-variable system GMM, and modern dynamic difference-in-differences estimators to identify the causal effect of conflict exposure on countries’ climate performance. We show that armed conflict widens the emissions gap, with the strongest effects observed during the Kyoto period and persistent impacts under the Paris framework. A global counterfactual analysis reveals that, in the absence of conflict, the world would have moved substantially closer to its climate targets. Fiscal crowding-out emerges as a key transmission channel, as conflicts reallocate public resources toward security at the expense of environmental investment. However, stronger fiscal capacity, higher innovation intensity, and greater access to concessional climate finance significantly attenuate these effects, with particularly large impacts in developing economies and under conditional NDCs. Overall, the findings demonstrate that armed conflicts constitute a major obstacle to the effective implementation of climate commitments. By weakening fiscal capacity, institutional effectiveness, and environmental spending, conflicts reduce countries’ ability to meet their mitigation targets. Ignoring these dynamics may lead to systematic overestimation of global progress under international climate agreements. The results therefore suggest that peace is not only a security objective but also a prerequisite for successful climate action. Achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement may require greater attention to conflict prevention, peacebuilding, and post-conflict reconstruction alongside conventional climate policies. | |