Conference Agenda
Overview and details of the sessions of this conference. Please select a date or location to show only sessions at that day or location. Please select a single session for detailed view (with abstracts and downloads if available).
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Daily Overview |
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Egg-Timer: Natural Resources and Rural Livelihoods Location: D-110 Session Chair: Claudia Aravena, Heriot Watt University | |
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The Impact of China’s Twin Agricultural Tariffs on Dairy Supply 1: University of Florida, United States of America; 2: University of Guelph, Canada Trade barriers imposed simultaneously on agricultural inputs and final products---``twin tariffs''---can compress producer margins and reshape food-system resilience in ways that single-commodity analyses miss. We study this mechanism using China's 2018--2025 retaliatory tariffs on U.S.\ alfalfa hay (an upstream feed input) and U.S.\ dairy products (a downstream output). Combining a large-country partial-equilibrium model with vertical cost linkage and monthly bilateral trade data from 2005 to 2025, we show that alfalfa imports adjusted primarily on the price margin because high-quality forage is difficult to substitute, while dairy imports adjusted on the quantity margin through origin diversion to New Zealand and the EU. China's farm-gate milk price rose 0.52\% during the first trade-war period (2018--2022) and attenuated as importers diversified. Welfare counterfactuals indicate a net loss of \$11.7 billion, exceeding the sum of single-tariff losses by \$2.6 billion through cross-market amplification. A domestic upstream subsidy reduces the net loss by 76\%, substantially outperforming equivalent downstream protection. | |