JavaScript is Disabled
Your browser's JavaScript functionality is disabled. It has to be enabled to use this function of ConfTool.
Here you can find information on how to enable JavaScript
If you have any problems, please contact the organizers at programme@wcere2026.org.

Conference Agenda

Overview and details of the sessions of this conference. Please select a date or location to show only sessions at that day or location. Please select a single session for detailed view (with abstracts and downloads if available).

Please note that all times are shown in the time zone of the conference. The current conference time is: 24th Aug 2026, 01:44:31am WEST

External resources will be made available 30 min before a session starts. You may have to reload the page to access the resources.

Daily Overview

Session

Macroeconomics of the Climate Transition
Location: D-105
Session Chair: Inès Mourelon, University of Bologna

Presentation 3

Forecasting the Transition: Expectation Dynamics under Climate Policy Volatility

Emanuele Campiglio^1,2, Maria Alejandra Erazo Diaz³, Francesco Lamperti^4,2, Roberta Terranova^5,2

1: University of Bologna, Italy; 2: Euro-Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change (CMCC), Italy; 3: Universidad de los Andes, Colombia; 4: Sant’Anna School of Advanced Studies, Italy; 5: Université Côte d’Azur, France

Discussant: Inès Mourelon (University of Bologna)

We study how climate policy volatility shapes expectations about the low-carbon transition. We run a learning-to-forecast experiment in which participants repeatedly predict the future carbon tax at short, medium, and long horizons. These forecasts feed a parsimonious transition model with imperfect policy commitment, mapping beliefs into clean investment, perceived transition risk, and the implemented policy path. Treatments introduce probabilistic shocks to government climate commitment, mimicking different degrees of political polarisation. To isolate expectation-driven effects, we compare experimental outcomes to a fully informed rational-expectations (FIRE) benchmark. Three results stand out. First, participants underweight policy risk ex ante. Second, commitment shocks trigger systematic overreaction -- stronger and more persistent under high instability -- with forecast dispersion spiking on impact and then gradually declining. Third, early adverse shocks generate large temporary shortfalls in clean investment and leave persistent drags on the pace of decarbonisation. Overall, the results highlight credibility and timing as first-order determinants of effective climate policy.