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Conference Agenda

Overview and details of the sessions of this conference. Please select a date or location to show only sessions at that day or location. Please select a single session for detailed view (with abstracts and downloads if available).

Please note that all times are shown in the time zone of the conference. The current conference time is: 24th Aug 2026, 01:45:10am WEST

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Daily Overview

Session

Geopolitics and the Environment
Location: B004
Session Chair: Zhi Li, Xiamen University

Presentation 3

Fossil tariffs and green industrial policy in fragmented geopolitics: multi-model evidence on mitigation costs and critical-minerals constraints

Lara Aleluia Reis^1,2, Matteo Calcaterra², Leticia Magalar², Laurent Drouet^1,2, Dimitris Fragkiadakis³, Zoi Vrontisi³, Kostas Fragkiadakis³, Shinichiro Fujimori⁴, Limeng Fan^4,5, Osamu Nishiura⁵, Rahel Mandaroux⁶, Oliver Richters⁶, Sophie Fuchs⁶, Elmar Kriegler⁶, Detlef van Vuuren^7,8, Isabela Schmidt Tagomori⁷, Harmen-Sytze de Boer⁷, Vassilis Daioglou⁷, Oliver Fricko⁹, Bas van Ruijven⁹, Volker Krey⁹, Keywan Riahi⁹, Massimo Tavoni², Paola Rocchi²

1: NOVA School of Science and Technology, Portugal; 2: NOVA School of Science and Technology; 3: E3 Modelling S.A, Athens, Greece; 4: Department of Environmental Engineering, Kyoto University; 5: National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, City of Tsukuba, Japan.; 6: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany; 7: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, Netherlands.; 8: Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands; 9: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria

Discussant: Zhi Li (Xiamen University)

Geopolitical tensions and energy-security concerns are reviving protectionist measures. Using a harmonized protocol across multiple integrated assessment models, we assess fossil-energy import tariffs based on the carbon content of imported fuels, with and without trade retaliation, and with green industrial policy and no technology cooperation. Tariffs accelerate renewables but deliver limited climate benefits, about 9% of the mitigation required for a Paris-consistent pathway, and impose macroeconomic costs. Retaliation raises GDP losses in the Global South (by more than 0.3 percentage points) and increases volatility for fossil exporters (up to a 1.2 percentage-point range). Uneven critical material resources imply that self-sufficiency reshuffles dependencies rather than eliminating them. Shutting off technology spillovers raises costs (up to 5% GDP) and slows transitions, whereas recycling tariff revenues into domestic clean investment yields up to 4% GDP gains and further cuts CO2. We propose this framework as a baseline for IAM climate assessments under geopolitical fragmentation.