Conference Agenda
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Carbon and International Trade Location: B133 Session Chair: France d'Agrain, Mines Paris - PSL | |
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'International trade and climate policy: Carbon leakage across sectors and countries’ University of Strathclyde, United Kingdom This paper examines carbon leakage across sectors and countries through international trade under unilateral carbon pricing. Building on Bernard et al. (2007), we incorporate the emissions generation into the general equilibrium framework that captures the interaction among country, sector, and firm-level characteristics to analyze changes in emissions across sectors and countries. The findings indicate that carbon pricing induces positive leakage across sectors—toward unregulated activities at home—and across countries—toward foreign producers. Anti-leakage measures can lessen, and sometimes reverse, cross-country leakage, but cross-sector leakage persists because inputs reallocate between sectors. A firm-level decomposition shows that reductions in firm-level emission intensity drive most of the decline in emissions within regulated sectors, while the mechanisms in unregulated sectors are mixed. Policy effectiveness depends on carbon market size and the competitiveness of regulated sectors, and welfare outcomes hinge on both the design of anti-leakage measures and the assumed social cost of carbon. | |