Conference Agenda
Overview and details of the sessions of this conference. Please select a date or location to show only sessions at that day or location. Please select a single session for detailed view (with abstracts and downloads if available).
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Daily Overview |
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Climate Change Mitigation 7 Location: B011 Session Chair: Raul Bajo-Buenestado, University of Navarra | |
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Increased Intensity and Frequency of Heat Stress Lowers Global Labor Productivity and Increases Climate Cost Estimates 1: University of California Davis, United States of America; 2: Purdue University, United States of America; 3: Stanford School of Medicine, United States of America; 4: Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability, United States of America One of the most direct and consequential effects of climate change is an increase in human exposure to heat stress, with large adverse consequences for labor productivity, as workers need to take more breaks or work at lower intensity. However, comprehensive assessment of the global, economy-wide costs of these productivity effects is largely missing, including from important policy-relevant metrics such as the social cost of carbon (SCC). This paper estimates the labor productivity impacts of heat stress at $65 per ton CO2 in 2020 (90% confidence interval $3 - 161) under a 2% near term discount rate. This estimate is based on work-place heat-stress standards, bias-corrected projections of heat stress from the CMIP6 ensemble, general equilibrium modeling to account for adaptive economic responses, and integration into a cutting-edge integrated assessment framework. Losses are geographically heterogenous, with a high concentration in South Asia and, to a lesser extent, in East and Southeast Asia and Africa. We also present a revised agriculture sector damage function based on new evidence from IPCC AR6. The combined effect of the new labor and agriculture damages on the expected value of the 2020 SCC is a modest increase from $185 per ton CO2 to $192 per ton, but also a substantial reduction in uncertainty (90% confidence interval falls from $45-$425 to $74-369, a more than 20% contraction), likely due to more precise estimates of the climate change impact on crop yields. | |