Conference Agenda

Diversifying forests and farms can enhance resilience to biotic and abiotic shocks and serve as a climate adaptation strategy; yet, little is known about landowners and farmers’ willingness to adopt diversification for enhanced resilience. As a case study, we focus on U.S. tree syrup production, which relies heavily on a single tree species (i.e., monoculture) and is vulnerable to climate change due to the temperature-dependent nature of syrup production. To characterize the intertemporal trade-offs between immediate yield losses and long-term resilience gains in maple forest (sugarbush) diversification, we developed a dynamic optimization framework to formalize these trade-offs and derive testable hypotheses. Because maple forest diversification remains relatively uncommon in practice, revealed-preference data are limited; we therefore designed and conducted a choice experiment (CE) with maple producers in the Midwestern and Northeastern United States to test these hypotheses and elicit preferences for diversification adoption. We analyze diversification decisions using discrete choice models that account for strong status quo behavior and preference heterogeneity. Results reveal a pronounced preference for maintaining current management practices. Adoption likelihood decreases with higher diversification intensity, larger yield losses, and longer cost-share contracts, while increasing with higher incentive payments and greater peer adoption. Providing producers with region-specific projections of future syrup production under an RCP 8.5 climate scenario increases tolerance for short-term opportunity costs and raises the valuation of long-term resilience benefits. Heterogeneity analyses show that older, more risk-averse, and timber-oriented producers are less likely to diversify, whereas producers with prior engagement in conservation programs are more open to adoption. These findings highlight the importance of public programs that support diversification investments with flexible contracts, place-based climate information provision, and targeted interventions that consider the diversity of producer groups.