Conference Agenda

Forest pathogens are an increasingly important yet understudied driver of economic welfare losses. This paper estimates the causal impacts of White Pine Blister Rust (WPBR), a non-native forest disease, on wildfire activity, recreation behavior, and visitor welfare in the United States. We combine high-resolution RustMapper projections of WPBR invasion and establishment risk with nationally representative U.S. Forest Service National Visitor Use Monitoring data and administrative wildfire records. Identification exploits sharp ecological thresholds in disease risk using a geographic regression discontinuity design. We find that WPBR exposure significantly increases local wildfire activity, particularly once establishment risk is reached. Near ecological host boundaries, establishment risk increases the number of wildfires within 5–10 km by approximately 1–3 additional fires over a five-year period, implying meaningful increases in suppression costs. These ecological effects translate into large economic responses in recreation markets. Visitors exposed to WPBR risk shorten trips, are 40–45 percentage points less likely to stay overnight, substitute toward shorter day-use activities and closer destinations, and substantially reduce spending. At narrow bandwidths, invasion risk lowers per-trip expenditures by roughly \$900–\$970, driven primarily by declines in lodging, restaurant, and recreation-fee spending. Visitor satisfaction declines most sharply for facilities and environmental quality. Taken together, the results imply economically meaningful revenue losses for gateway communities and highlight forest disease as an underappreciated driver of both wildfire risk and recreational welfare losses. The findings underscore the potential economic returns to proactive forest health and invasive species management as part of climate adaptation policy.