Conference Agenda

For over 4 decades, the IUCN has assessed the conservation status of thousands of

species, categorising them in order of concern from Least Concern to Critically Endangered and Extinct. We assess the likelihood for a species to change from a given conservation status to another, estimating a yearly Markov switching model. This allows us to calculate the likelihood of extinction for a given time horizon for species in each category. We also investigate how these likelihoods of extinction differ for different subgroups of species (mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibians plants) and different periods. Next, we assess the relationship between habitat and the likelihood of belonging to an IUCN status. Combining this with our Markov switching model, we express the risk of extinction as a function of current and natural habitat. Third, having established an extinction likelihood function, we can estimate the effect of developing a plot of land on the number of extinctions before 2100 by calculating the change of extinction risk for all species that are (potentially) present on that plot of land. Forth, we develop the concept of the value of a statistical species as the ratio of the cost of protecting land and its effect on the likelihood of a species going extinct. This value allows us to rank plots of lands according to their priority for conservation. Finally, we compare our empirical species extinction function with other approaches in the literature, such as the Species Area Relationship and the STAR biodiversity index.