Conference Agenda
Overview and details of the sessions of this conference. Please select a date or location to show only sessions at that day or location. Please select a single session for detailed view (with abstracts and downloads if available).
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Climate Change and Impacts: Natural Disasters Location: B011 Session Chair: Mudigonda Sarath-Chandra, Paris School of Economics | |
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Heat Exposure and Mortality in Aotearoa New Zealand: A national Time-Stratified Case-Crossover Study Using Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature and Air Temperature 1: Gran Sasso Science Institute, New Zealand; 2: Victoria University of Wellington; 3: Earth System New Zealand Extreme heat is increasing in frequency and intensity, with disproportionate risks for clinically and socially vulnerable groups. New Zealand lacks national, metric-sensitive estimates of short-term heat–mortality associations, including comparisons of composite heat stress (Wet Bulb Global Temperature) versus standard air temperature. To quantify same-day effects of heat on mortality, we linked weather station observation data to administrative mortality records for all deceased individuals in New Zealand. Both Wet Bulb Global Temperature (WBGT) and air temperature (daily mean, maximum, minimum) were used. Same-day effects were estimated using time-stratified case-crossover models with month×weekday strata, for four windows: (i) all-cause mortality, full year; (ii) non-injury mortality, full year; (iii)-(iv) the corresponding warm-season (Oct–Mar) subsets. We additionally examined discrete exposure bins, distributed lag non-linear curves (lags 0–7), and heterogeneity by location, sex, and age. Across the daily summaries, the mean series yields the largest effects. Over the full year, all-cause mortality rises by 0.44% per +1 °C for WBGT(mean) versus 0.39% per +1 °C for Temperature(mean). Similar results are identified for non-injury mortality. Warm-season effects are larger: For all-cause mortality the risk increases by about 0.55% (with similar figures for air temperature and only non-injury mortality. Across samples, WBGT estimates are consistently larger than temperature-only measures. Scaling the estimates by average death counts implies that a uniform +1 °C increase in mean WBGT would correspond to approximately 140 additional all-cause deaths and 110 non-injury deaths per year, and about 85 and 70 extra deaths per warm season, respectively. | |