Conference Agenda

Energy use in road transport and buildings are key contributors to climate change, air pollution, and the corresponding health burden. Given technological progress in recent years, replacing fossil fuels by electricity generated from clean sources emerges as a potential strategy to mitigation harmful environmental and health consequences. Yet, a global assessment of broader benefits of end-use electrification is not available in the academic literature. Here, we line up a multi-disciplinary modelling toolbox to quantify the global air quality and health implications of electrification in a broad scenario space encompassing variation in climate policy, clean air controls, technological progress, and enabling conditions. Under current climate policies, we find that electrification reduces premature deaths related to air pollution by 73,000 (28,000-184,000) globally in 2050. More ambitious climate policies, in line with the 2°C target of the Paris Agreement, raise these benefits by 50% to 110,000 (66,000-270,000) avoided premature deaths per year by mid-century. Around 10% (16%) of the global gains stem from the simultaneous evolution of the electricity generation mix under current (2°C-compatible) climate policies, highlighting that further grid decarbonisation amplifies the health benefits of electrification. Comparing buildings with transport, the results indicate that the electrification of energy use in buildings contributes more strongly to reductions of fine particulate matter, particularly in Africa, India, and China, while road transport electrification provides stronger clean air benefits for ground-level ozone due to nitrogen oxides emission reductions. Overall, the results indicate strong, local, and near-term benefits of policies that increase the pace of end-use electrification through heat pumps, clean cooking, and electric vehicles, jointly contributing to progress on sustainable development goals related to climate, air quality, and health.