Conference Agenda
Overview and details of the sessions of this conference. Please select a date or location to show only sessions at that day or location. Please select a single session for detailed view (with abstracts and downloads if available).
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Daily Overview |
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Thresholds, Cooperation and Behavior Location: B002 Session Chair: Daniel Martinez-Felip, The University of Western Australia | |
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The Behavioral Effects of Early Warning Signals 1: University of Augsburg, Germany; 2: RPTU Kaiserslautern-Landau Natural resource systems often exhibit tipping points: If consumption exceeds a tipping point, the system collapses. The location of these tipping points is almost always unknown. Hence, receiving an early warning signal (EWS) about the location of a tipping point appears to be very valuable. Recent progress in natural sciences has shown that (a) many natural systems indeed have the potential to show such early warning signals but (b) detection is often unreliable. Here, we present a theoretical model and a behavioral experiment representing such a situation. A decision maker chooses consumption to maximize her payoff, subject to not exceeding an unknown tipping point, in one of three decision environment: without an early warning system (EWSys), with a reliable EWSys and with an unreliable EWSys. We derive optimal choices and the value of information in each case and compare them to the behavior observed in the experiment. | |