Conference Agenda
Overview and details of the sessions of this conference. Please select a date or location to show only sessions at that day or location. Please select a single session for detailed view (with abstracts and downloads if available).
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Daily Overview |
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Thematic Session: New Empirical Evidence on Forest Conservation (Streaming) Location: B009 Session Chair: David Wuepper, University of Bonn | |
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Estimating the effect of protection on deforestation in the Amazon using neural networks 1: University of California, Santa Barbara, United States of America; 2: University of Bonn, Germany Protected areas are key conservation instruments in the Amazon rainforest, yet assessing their effectiveness in avoiding deforestation remains challenging. Forest loss is driven by complex, nonlinear, and heterogeneous processes, and protected areas are established in a non-random and staggered manner. We address these challenges using a physics-aware neural network trained on unprotected forest observations to predict counterfactual deforestation in areas that become protected. Comparing observed and predicted deforestation reveals the effective reduction of deforestation following protection. Results are consistent with state-of-the-art econometric methods, while the neural network prediction captures spatial heterogeneity and highlights how conservation effectiveness varies across contexts. | |