Conference Agenda

Climate change poses growing risks to Europe’s economy, yet the magnitude and spatial distribution of these impacts remain insufficiently understood. This study quantifies the macroeconomic consequences of climate change for the European Union at both national and NUTS2 levels by linking CMIP6 climate projections with biophysical impact models and integrating these outputs into the GEM-E3-R computable general equilibrium framework. Sectoral climate impacts covering agriculture, fisheries, flooding, labour productivity and tourism are introduced through calibrated shifts in productivity, capital efficiency and demand. The analysis evaluates outcomes under two contrasting climate futures, RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, to capture a range of possible impact pathways. Regional outcomes are generated through the model’s Attractiveness Index, which provides a consistent mechanism for downscaling national-level impacts.

The results indicate that modest gains in agriculture and tourism are outweighed by losses from flooding and heat-related labour productivity declines, leading to moderate but persistent reductions in GDP and employment by mid-century. The magnitude of impacts increases markedly under the high-emissions pathway, highlighting the sensitivity of economic outcomes to future climate trajectories. Impacts vary widely across Member States and regions, with southern and coastal areas generally more exposed, while some northern and inland regions experience relative gains as economic activity shifts spatially.

These findings underscore the importance of climate mitigation in limiting long-term macroeconomic losses and the need for targeted adaptation strategies, including strengthened flood protection, measures to safeguard workers in heat-exposed sectors and more forward-looking regional planning. The study offers a harmonised, spatially detailed assessment that supports EU climate resilience efforts and informs policy design under alternative climate futures.