Conference Agenda
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Integrated Assessment Models Location: B005 Session Chair: Michael Sureth, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) | |
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The social cost of carbon when accounting for biosphere integrity and land use change: An extension of the DICE model 1: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Germany; 2: Faculty VI – Planning Building Environment, Technical University Berlin, Germany; 3: Faculty of Economics and Management Science, Leipzig University, Germany; 4: Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, University of Potsdam, Germany The twin crisis of climate change and biosphere degradation is deepening, yet integrated assessment models still treat them as separate problems. This paper extends the latest Dynamic Integrated Climate-Economy (DICE-2023) model to incorporate three Earth system processes highlighted by the Planetary Boundaries framework: climate, biosphere integrity, and land system change. We add a land use sector and a biosphere integrity stock, operationalised through the Biodiversity Intactness Index (BII), to explicitly link the global economy, climate, and biosphere integrity, capturing the key dependencies and reciprocities. The model supports both classical DICE-style cost-benefit analysis and target-constrained analyses that quantify the welfare cost of staying within specified planetary boundaries. Our preliminary results highlight that the next 75--100 years are decisive: population, income, and climate pressures peak in this period, while the biosphere damages inflicted by these pressures are partly irreversible on policy-relevant timescales. Thus, our results call for jointly pricing biosphere degradation alongside climate change. Doing so yields a new shadow price: the social cost of biosphere degradation (SCB). The SCB is of comparable economic importance to the social cost of carbon, motivating early action to protect biosphere integrity alongside climate mitigation. | |