Conference Agenda

Climate-induced inland floods represent a growing threat to U.S. communities, accounting for nearly one-quarter of all billion-dollar weather events since 1980. While coastal flooding has received substantial attention, the impact of inland floods on community composition and housing tenure remains understudied. This paper examines how severe inland flooding affects homeownership rates and migration patterns, linking tenure decisions with relocation choices to understand how floods restructure local demographics. We combine a detailed case study of the catastrophic 2008 Cedar Rapids flood with a nationwide county-level analysis spanning 2006-2022 to assess both immediate and longer-term effects. Using a spatial regression discontinuity design that exploits sharp inundation boundaries, we find that homeownership rates in flood-affected areas within the 100-year floodplain declined by 12.2 percentage points in the two years following the Cedar Rapids disaster. This decline was driven by two mechanisms: heightened outmigration among owners and selective in-migration of renters. Incoming residents from outside the affected county were 80% less likely to purchase homes immediately after the flood, though this effect dissipates within one year. The nationwide analysis confirms these localized patterns at scale, revealing a 2-percentage-point decline in county-level homeownership rates between years 2-5 following extreme precipitation events, with effects gradually reverting to baseline thereafter. Our findings suggest that flood-induced tenure shifts are substantial but temporary, as risk perceptions fade during recovery. However, the concentration of rental housing in hazard-prone neighborhoods raises concerns about wealth accumulation and inequality. These results underscore the need for recovery policies that address vulnerable populations, strengthen flood-risk communication beyond mapped floodplains, and provide equitable pathways for climate adaptation.