Conference Agenda
Overview and details of the sessions of this conference. Please select a date or location to show only sessions at that day or location. Please select a single session for detailed view (with abstracts and downloads if available).
Please note that all times are shown in the time zone of the conference. The current conference time is: 24th Aug 2026, 01:53:34am WEST
External resources will be made available 30 min before a session starts. You may have to reload the page to access the resources.
|
Daily Overview |
| Session | |
|
Political Economy of Energy Supply Location: B131 Session Chair: Stephan A. Schneider, Stanford University | |
    | |
Empirical Tests of the Green Paradox for Climate Legislation 1: Columbia Univerristy; 2: Harvard Kennedy School and National Bureau of Economic Research The Green Paradox posits that fossil fuel markets respond to evolving expectations about climate legislation, intended to limit future consumption, by shifting consumption to the present, lowering present-day prices. We demonstrate that oil futures reacted negatively to daily changes in prediction market expectations regarding the Waxman-Markey bill—the U.S. climate bill discussed in 2009–2010. This effect is observed across various maturities, with an even larger impact on more distant maturitiesis;, consistent with the Green Paradox prediction that the proposed legislation would have reset the entire price and consumption path temporary supply or demand shocks would phase out over time. The decrease in oil prices is accompanied by a decrease in storage levels as consumption accelerates while it takes time for new production to come online. Furthermore, two unexpected court rulings that implied limited future fossil fuel use were also associated with negative abnormal oil future returns. Taken together, these findings confirm that restricting future fossil fuel use accelerates current-day consumption. The passage of the Waxmann-Markey bill would have increased current global oil consumption by 2%. | |