Conference Agenda
Overview and details of the sessions of this conference. Please select a date or location to show only sessions at that day or location. Please select a single session for detailed view (with abstracts and downloads if available).
Please note that all times are shown in the time zone of the conference. The current conference time is: 24th Aug 2026, 01:53:13am WEST
External resources will be made available 30 min before a session starts. You may have to reload the page to access the resources.
|
Daily Overview |
| Session | |
|
Climate Damages Impact Location: B128 Session Chair: Edouard Civel, EDHEC Business School and Climate Economics Chair | |
    | |
Shake it till you strand it? Economic assessment of clay shrinkage-swelling risk in a warming France. 1: Climate Economics Chair, Paris-Dauphine University; 2: Square Research Center; 3: LEO, University of Orleans This paper quantifies climate stranding risk for French residential properties exposed to clay shrinkage-swelling (CSS). We measure the potential for stranding by estimating the wedge between the actuarial present value of future CSS damages and the extent to which these expected costs are capitalized into current house prices. We train an XGBoost classifier on roughly 30,000 CatNat-CSS recognition events in metropolitan France over 2000-2024 and project municipality-level recognition probabilities through 2100 under TRACC climate scenarios. We then map projected recognition risk into expected CatNat claim counts and monetary losses, and compute net present values (NPVs) of future CSS damages. Aggregate projected losses amount to about 81 billion € through 2100, or 37 billion € when discounted at a 2% real rate (base year 2025). Merging these NPVs with 800,000 housing transactions, hedonic regressions show that CSS risk is only weakly capitalized: doubling the projected NPV is associated with a price decrease of only a few tenths of a percent. The resulting gap between forward-looking expected losses and observed price discounts points to substantial unpriced chronic climate risk and suggests meaningful scope for future asset stranding as information, regulation, or insurance conditions evolve. | |