Conference Agenda
Overview and details of the sessions of this conference. Please select a date or location to show only sessions at that day or location. Please select a single session for detailed view (with abstracts and downloads if available).
Please note that all times are shown in the time zone of the conference. The current conference time is: 24th Aug 2026, 12:48:17am WEST
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Daily Overview |
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Egg-Timer: Transport and Environmental Policy Location: D-107 Session Chair: Moon Joon Kim, George Mason University Korea | |
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Anticipation Effects in Vehicle Markets: Evidence from Sweden’s Feebate Policy 1: University of Colorado Boulder, United States of America; 2: University of Melbourne, Australia We study anticipatory behavior in response to Sweden’s feebate vehicle policy. Using administrative data on vehicle registrations linked to individual and firm characteristics, we document pronounced anticipation effects that are largely driven by intertemporal substitution but also lead to excess vehicle adoption of roughly 3 percent. Vehicles adopted ahead of implementation are systematically dirtier and subsequently driven more intensively, amplifying the environmental damages of the policy announcement. We find that anticipatory adoption is driven primarily by dealer stock-management strategies, household liquidity, and information salience, whereas vehicle prices and charging infrastructure play little role in explaining these behaviors. We then quantify the environmental implications of anticipatory behavior, accounting for excess adoption, the higher emissions intensity of vehicles purchased in anticipation, and their more intensive subsequent usage. Ultimately, the environmental costs of the anticipatory behavior amount to approximately $62 million, or around half of the budget allocated to the policy in 2019. | |