Conference Agenda

Climate change has increased the frequency of drought events in the Amazon. Deforestation worsens local climate dynamics, and weather shocks can, in turn, influence land-use decisions. In the Brazilian Amazon, where land tenure is a mix of public and private holdings, landholders on public lands may lack incentives to manage forests sustainably. This study examines how droughts differentially affect pasture expansion on public versus private lands. Using spatially matched comparisons within 0.5° grid cells, we find that during drought years, ranchers on public lands expand pasture area by 30\% more than in baseline years, while private landholders show no significant response. We explore mechanisms behind this difference and find that drought-induced pasture degradation leads to expansion in both tenure types. However, ranchers on public lands expand pasture by 20\% more than those on private lands in response to similar degradation. Moreover, only public landholders continue to expand even after controlling for degradation, suggesting additional drivers, such as lower deforestation costs in drier, more flammable forests. These findings indicate that climate-induced droughts increase deforestation pressure on public forests, which store substantial carbon stocks and cover over two-thirds of the Amazon. This vulnerability complicates efforts to mitigate climate change.