Conference Agenda
Overview and details of the sessions of this conference. Please select a date or location to show only sessions at that day or location. Please select a single session for detailed view (with abstracts and downloads if available).
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Thematic Session: Climate Shocks, Political Accountability, and Behavioral Responses (Streaming) Location: B134 Session Chair: Alessandro Palma, Gran Sasso Science Institute Session Chair: Ilan Noy, Gran Sasso Science Institute | |
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The Convexity of Hurricane Damages 1: University of Barcelona, Chair of Energy Sustainability and Institute of Economics of Barcelona, Spain; 2: Ca' Foscari University of Venice, Italy; 3: CMCC: Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change; 4: EIEE: European Institute on Economics and the Environment; 5: Institute for New Economic Thinking, University of Oxford; 6: Banco de México, Mexico; 7: Department of Management, Technology, and Economics, ETH Zurich Most economic studies of environmental disasters focus on event occurrence, typically using difference-in-differences methods. However, intensity is often the more relevant margin. We study hurricanes, whose intensity is projected to increase with climate change while changes in frequency remain uncertain. We exploit spatial asymmetries in storm dynamics to causally identify how damages vary with intensity. In the Northern Hemisphere, translational and rotational winds reinforce each other on the right side of storms, creating a natural fuzzy discontinuity. In addition, short-run fluctuations in the position of the Bermuda High, a large high-pressure system over the Atlantic, influence hurricane trajectories near the U.S. coast, generating quasi-random variation in regional exposure. In this preliminary draft, we show how these physical mechanisms can be used to identify exogenous variation in hurricane intensity at the local level, laying the groundwork for estimating how damages scale with intensity in future iterations of this working paper. | |