Conference Agenda
Overview and details of the sessions of this conference. Please select a date or location to show only sessions at that day or location. Please select a single session for detailed view (with abstracts and downloads if available).
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Daily Overview |
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Egg-Timer: Carbon Markets and Climate Policy Location: D-107 Session Chair: Jiwon Im, Seoul National University | |
| Presentation 5 | |
Market Design and Complementary Policies for the EU ETS2: Estimating Price and Welfare Effects 1: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany; 2: Technical University Berlin; 3: University of Potsdam The EU ETS2 is highly contended in the political discourse because of potentially high prices. Complementary policies and market rules might dampen demand for emission permits and reduce future prices. This paper proposes a dynamic cal- ibrated model of the ETS2 that facilitates a transparent examination of these price effects accounting for (i) changing abatement costs over time and (ii) dif- ferent designs of price stabilization mechanisms in a modular way. We develop a conceptual framework for calculating carbon-price equivalents and welfare costs of complementary policies. We find ETS2 prices for 2027 of 365 EUR/tCO2 for our main calibration. Complementary policies consisting of national carbon prices, EU vehicle regulation and international offsets can reduce the ETS2 price by up to 60 EUR/tCO2 in total at an additional welfare cost of 0.1-0.6%. Front- loading allowances via an intertemporal trading ratio can deliver substantially larger price relief, but its welfare cost rises steeply: suppressing the 2027 price to 45 EUR/tCO2 would cost 12% of total abatement costs. The proposed one-year delay of the ETS2 increases carbon prices in subsequent periods if the cumulative emissions cap remains unchanged. | |

