Conference Agenda

Efforts to stabilise climate change have prompted increasingly stringent emissions reduction objectives under the Paris Agreement, yet a substantial gap often exists between stated policy ambitions and trajectories suggested by current energy consumption patterns. This paper assesses whether eight major Asian economies can meet their 2030 NDC targets and net-zero pledges by analysing sectoral energy demand dynamics across 65 years of data. Estimates from the energy demand modelling reveals that income elasticities follow partially an inverse-U pattern, with most sectors maintaining elasticities at or above unity. Japan is the only country exhibiting negative income elasticities across multiple sectors (i.e., where energy consumption declines as incomes rise) and is the only country projected to achieve meaningful reductions in carbon dioxide emissions by 2050. This evidence highlights the need to better understand ways to accelerate the transition toward negative income elasticities across sectors. Meanwhile, price elasticities remain low, limiting the effectiveness of price-based instruments. Most countries will fall short of their NDCs and net-zero pledges. Renewable energy targets appear achievable, yet renewables often supplement rather than displace fossil fuels in expanding systems, underscoring that Asia's climate challenge requires wholesale transformation at unprecedented speed and scale.