Conference Agenda
Overview and details of the sessions of this conference. Please select a date or location to show only sessions at that day or location. Please select a single session for detailed view (with abstracts and downloads if available).
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Daily Overview |
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Thematic Session: Critical Minerals for the Clean Energy Transition (Streaming) Location: B008 Session Chair: Joelle Noailly, Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, Geneva Session Chair: Gerard van der Meijden, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam | |
| Presentation 3 | |
Opening mines under the risk of geoeconomic fragmentation: A real option approach 1: PSE, Univ Paris 1 Panthéon Sorbonne; 2: IREGE, Univ Savoie Mont-Blanc, OFCE; 3: CEE-M, Univ Montpellier This article examines the economic rationale for opening new mines to extract critical raw materials (CRMs) in Europe, in search of strategic autonomy. We use a real-option framework to analyse a government's decision on the optimal timing of such an investment, taking into account mineral prices and domestic economic activity. The model incorporates geoeconomic fragmentation risk as a source of uncertainty that materialises as jumps in CRM prices. While uncertainty would be expected to delay the start of mining operations, our results show that a countervailing effect also exists, which increases the expected value of the developed mine. Furthermore, we show that the development of recycling does not clarify whether advancing extraction is ultimately socially desirable, underscoring the ambiguous theoretical implications of an expanding supply of secondary materials. | |

