Conference Agenda
Overview and details of the sessions of this conference. Please select a date or location to show only sessions at that day or location. Please select a single session for detailed view (with abstracts and downloads if available).
Please note that all times are shown in the time zone of the conference. The current conference time is: 24th Aug 2026, 01:47:53am WEST
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Daily Overview |
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Climate Change Adaptation 4 Location: B004 Session Chair: Katharina Ziegler, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research | |
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Temperature impacts on the economy: Searching for evidence of adaptation using causal forests 1: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany; 2: Technical University Berlin, Germany; 3: Leibniz Institute for Economic Research (RWI), Germany; 4: Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), Germany; 5: University Potsdam, Germany; 6: CESifo research network, Germany Understanding heterogeneity in the climate-economy relationship is crucial for gaining insight into potential adaptation mechanisms. We apply causal forests to panel data to identify variables that drive treatment effect heterogeneity in climatic conditions, focusing on temperature impacts on economic output. We systematically evaluate more than 260 socio-economic and geographic characteristics, measured as long-run averages, that could moderate the relationship and lead to heterogeneous vulnerability. To select relevant characteristics beyond baseline climate, we use three novel panel implementations of causal forests and employ the least absolute selection and shrinkage operator (Lasso) as a robustness check. Mean years of education emerges as a key determinant of heterogeneity: countries with lower years of education are the most vulnerable to temperature changes. We also find that the percentage of the cropland area equipped for irrigation, the mean share of the country area that is covered by mosaic natural vegetation, and the mean terrain ruggedness index, which measures elevation changes, are relevant factors in explaining cross-country differences in vulnerability. Incorporating the selected variables into a fixed-effects panel regression framework highlights that some countries, particularly in Africa, have been substantially more vulnerable to temperature changes than reported by past studies. These moderators help inform which cross-country characteristics could reflect adaptation. | |