Conference Agenda

Ecosystem restoration is promoted as a nature-based solution to support both ecosystems and livelihoods, yet evidence on how it reshapes local economic behaviour and wellbeing remain scarce. This paper studies the ecological-economic response of fisheries to mangrove restoration in over 5,000 planting sites in the Philippines. We exploit the staggered roll-out of the Philippines’ National Greening Program between 2011-2018, applying difference-in-differences methods to ecological, fishery, and household survey data. Planting sites accumulate measurable mangrove cover over time and temporarily suppress nearshore phytoplankton productivity, consistent with growing trees competing for macronutrients at the base of the marine food web. These changes have theoretically ambiguous effects on fishing effort and catch. Empirically, catch remains unchanged while effort increases, a pattern consistent with expanding mangrove habitats making fish harder to catch rather than raising fishery productivity. Higher fishing costs are passed through to consumers via higher market prices for fish, inducing entry into the fishery while leaving household fishing incomes unchanged. Households substitute away from the consumption of fish towards meat and eggs, resulting in greater dietary protein diversity, with effects concentrated among poorer households and extending to non-fishing households. This study shows how ecological restoration can reshape livelihoods, markets, and consumption patterns in ways largely unanticipated by program designers.