Conference Agenda
Overview and details of the sessions of this conference. Please select a date or location to show only sessions at that day or location. Please select a single session for detailed view (with abstracts and downloads if available).
Please note that all times are shown in the time zone of the conference. The current conference time is: 24th Aug 2026, 12:49:15am WEST
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Daily Overview |
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Egg-Timer: Environmental Governance and Institutions Location: D-112 Session Chair: Sarah Jacobson, Williams College | |
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Assessing Costs and Mitigation Strategies for China's New NDC: A Multi-Model Comparison 1: Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University; 2: Environmental Defense Fund; 3: Development Research Center of State Council, PRC; 4: School of Economics and Management, China University of Geosciences (Beijing); 5: School of Economics and Management, Tsinghua University; 6: College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University; 7: Business School, Hunan University; 8: College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University; 9: School of Economics, Fudan University; 10: Fudan Development Institute; 11: School of Data Science, Fudan University; 12: School of Economics and Management, Beihang University; 13: School of Public Policy and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences; 14: School of Ecology and Environment, Renmin University of China; 15: School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences; 16: School of Environment, Tsinghua University China's recently announced 2035 Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) marks a significant step-up in its climate ambition, yet the economic costs of achieving this target remain unassessed. To address this gap, we conduct a coordinated inter-comparison of eleven computable general equilibrium (CGE) models, providing the first comprehensive cost assessment of China's new NDC and extending the analysis to its 2060 carbon neutrality pledge. We show that meeting the 2035 target would results in an annual GDP change ranging from -1.3% to +0.5%, accompanied by a carbon price of 20-415 yuan/tCO2. Substantial inter-model heterogeneity reflects divergent strategic pathways towards mitigation. To identify cross-model variation, we develop a diagnostic indicator system for three core strategies—energy-system decarbonization, economic restructuring, and carbon capture and storage (CCS) deployment—and visualize model-specific strategy portfolios through a fingerprint framework. Building on model parameters and the diagnostic indicators derived from mitigation strategies, we employ machine learning to attribute the divergences in cost projections across models. Our study delivers the first integrated analysis of costs and mitigation strategies for China's updated NDC, and offers a generalizable analytical lens for future model inter-comparisons by linking structural assumptions, strategic portfolios, and economic outcomes. | |