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Conference Agenda

Overview and details of the sessions of this conference. Please select a date or location to show only sessions at that day or location. Please select a single session for detailed view (with abstracts and downloads if available).

Please note that all times are shown in the time zone of the conference. The current conference time is: 24th Aug 2026, 01:52:50am WEST

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Daily Overview

Session

Egg-Timer: Climate Change and Socioeconomic Outcomes
Location: D-112
Session Chair: Jakob Hans Wedemeyer, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

Presentation 4

Too Hot to Handle? Climate-Related Disasters and Global Fertility Rates

Alejandro Lopez Feldman^1,2, Leonardo Bonilla Mejía³, Ana Maria Tribin Uribe⁴, Stefany Lopez Vera⁵

1: University of Gothenburg, Sweden; 2: Universidad Iberoamericana; 3: Banco de la República, Colombia; 4: The World Bank, Washington D.C.; 5: Universidad EAFIT, Colombia

Fertility is declining worldwide, yet the extent to which climate-related hazards shape realised fertility remains uncertain. Using a global country-year panel for 1950–2023 linking UN fertility estimates with EM-DAT disaster records, we estimate dynamic fertility responses under two impact dimensions: population disruption (affected-rate exposure) and lethality (death-rate exposure). Climate-related hazards show no systematic fertility response under population disruption, but exhibit persistent fertility reductions under lethality lasting at least 15 years. Pooled climate estimates mask sharp heterogeneity: storms and drought-related hazards drive fertility declines, whereas heat and cold waves are associated with modest fertility increases; hydrological events show additional negative effects in higher-lethality episodes. Over time, population-disruption effects are generally weak in earlier decades, while lethality-based effects are modest but consistently negative and attenuate in the most recent period. Effects differ little across broad income groupings, and non-climate disasters remain consistently fertility-reducing, providing a benchmark.