Conference Agenda
Overview and details of the sessions of this conference. Please select a date or location to show only sessions at that day or location. Please select a single session for detailed view (with abstracts and downloads if available).
Please note that all times are shown in the time zone of the conference. The current conference time is: 24th Aug 2026, 12:48:30am WEST
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Daily Overview |
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Egg-Timer: Environmental Valuation and Sustainability Location: D-111 Session Chair: Max Harleman, Villanova University | |
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Approaches to modelling climate migration 1: University of Exeter, UK; 2: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, USA; 3: Penn State University, USA; 4: Princeton University, USA; 5: Princeton University, USA Quantifying and projecting migration caused by climate changet is a critical challenge for policymakers and researchers. While causal inference, agent-based, gravity, and general equilibrium models have been employed widely to estimate the climate-migration relationship, their results often diverge, and they are typically used in isolation and at different spatio-temporal scales. Here, we aim to bridge this gap by introducing a unified notation and conceptual framework, designed to compare and evaluate the assumptions and outputs of these diverse models at a common scale. We illustrate our comparison using an empirically relevant case study: estimating and projecting the relationship between annual average temperature and internal state-to-state migration in the United States. We analyse results from hundreds of model permutations, illustrating how methodological choices and researcher degrees of freedom shape model outcomes. Our findings show that variations in modelling approach introduce uncertainty comparable in magnitude to statistical uncertainty. By integrating policy-relevant insights across methods, we highlight the value of model intercomparison in improving projections and informing policy decisions. | |