Conference Agenda

We study how realized climate risk affects democratic accountability by shaping electoral participation. Using municipality-level electoral returns from Italian national government and European Parliament elections between 2004 and 2023, we link detailed georeferenced records of extreme weather events to local voting outcomes. We first document, using long differences, that rising exposure to extreme precipitation is associated with declining turnout as climate shocks intensify over time. We then exploit quasi-random variation in the timing and severity of shocks relative to predetermined election dates within a staggered difference-in-differences design. Turnout falls sharply following extreme precipitation events occurring shortly before elections, with effects attenuating as temporal distance increases. Severity amplifies persistence but is not required for participation responses. Conditional on turnout, shocks temporarily shift vote shares toward green parties.