Conference Agenda
Overview and details of the sessions of this conference. Please select a date or location to show only sessions at that day or location. Please select a single session for detailed view (with abstracts and downloads if available).
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Daily Overview |
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Egg-Timer: Electricity Markets and Energy Systems Location: D-110 Session Chair: Yuxin Kang, Duke Univeristy | |
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Transmission of Risks across Climate Policy and Energy Supply Domains: Evidence from Seven Industrialized Countries 1: Sanford School of Public Policy, Duke University, USA; 2: Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, USA; 3: School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, China; 4: Research Center on Fictitious Economy & Data Science, Chinese Academy of Science, China; 5: Duke Global Health Institute, Duke University, USA As countries move to mitigate against climate change, there is growing concern about the transmission of risks across climate policy and energy supply domains. This study investigates that relationship descriptively using a Copula model, applied to seven countries: the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Japan, and China. Specifically, the analysis focuses on the dynamic relationships and interdependencies of energy market returns and a temporally-resolved index of national-level climate policy uncertainty. Applying the ARMA-GARCH model, we examine the marginal distributions of energy company stock returns and climate policy uncertainty series’ in each country, finding significant effects and persistent volatility, which suggest that markets require time to process information. The best-fitting model for the relationship between energy returns and climate policy uncertainty is the time-varying Gaussian model (TVN), in which the two variables exhibit symmetric dynamic dependence with persistent correlation parameters. The dynamic Copula analysis also highlights substantial differences in the strength and direction of dependence across countries: the United States and Canada exhibit near-zero dependence, the United Kingdom and Germany show negative dependence, and France, Japan, and China demonstrate positive dependence. Furthermore, the connection between energy markets and climate policy uncertainty is amplified following extreme events. Complementing the quantitative approach, the thematic analysis of climate policy texts uncovers how different countries frame, manage, and rationalize climate-related uncertainties, and provides a deeper understanding of the institutional and strategic contexts underlying observed market behaviors. By WCERE, we will incorporate new data to investigate this transmission in greater depth. This research contributes to understanding the complex interactions between energy markets and climate policy uncertainty, offering insights for policymakers and investors navigating the evolving global energy landscape. | |