Conference Agenda

Flood adaptation planning increasingly relies on high-resolution climate and impact modelling, yet the resulting indicators are rarely expressed in welfare terms that can guide public investment choices. We develop an integrated assessment framework that links convection-permitting climate projections and hydrological impact modelling with stated preference valuation to quantify the societal benefits of reducing future flood impacts in north-eastern Italy. Climate-conditioned flood exposure is simulated for mid-century and end-century horizons and translated into impact metrics across different elevation zones and multiple land use domains, including residential areas, productive areas, transport infrastructure, agricultural land and tourism assets. A large-scale discrete choice experiment was applied to estimate households’ willingness to pay for marginal reductions in flood impacts, with attribute levels calibrated to the hydro-climatic impact results. Individuals assign the highest marginal economic value to the protection of residential areas. Combining physical projections with economic evidence, we derived population-level estimates of the societal benefits of flood impact reduction. The resulting welfare indicators offer a transparent benchmark for evaluating the societal desirability of alternative adaptation strategies. This study is the first integration of hazard modelling and stated preference valuation. Our findings enhance the operational relevance of climate risk assessment and support the design of adaptation strategies that reflect both physical exposure and socially perceived value.