Conference Agenda

Approximately one-seventh of the world’s population lived within 5 km of organized violence as of 2023. Many of these areas are also highly vulnerable to climatic shocks, compounding insecurity and competition over scarce resources. Yet, little is known about how simultaneous exposure to climate extremes and violent conflict shapes migration decisions. To address this gap, we merge geo-referenced Gallup World Poll interviews from 144 countries over the period 2009 to 2022 with high-resolution measures of conflict and drought events. We analyze this dataset using a linear-probability model with a rich set of fixed effects and estimate the joint effect of conflict and drought events on migration aspirations. We find that conflict exposure and drought both exert significant positive effects on respondents’ aspirations to migrate. When individuals experience both shocks simultaneously, their probability of expressing migration aspirations roughly doubles, rising from an average of 23 percent to 45 percent. These compound effects of overlapping stressors are larger in poorer and less democratic countries, and among women, youth, and the less educated. Our findings highlight how conflict and climate risks can interact to heighten migration pressures and provide evidence for an integrated perspective in policy and research that considers both risks jointly.