Conference Agenda

The rapid expansion of artificial intelligence and data center infrastructure has generated substantial electricity demand, but its implications for the global transition to net zero emissions remains uncertain. Despite growing concern that data center development may delay the phase-out of coal power, this relationship has not been empirically assessed. Here, using comprehensive global datasets on data centers and coal-fired power plants, we apply survival analysis to quantify the link between data center exposure and the risk of coal plant retirement. Using Cox proportional hazard model with continuous proximity-based measures of data center exposure, we find that coal plants exposed to post-2020 data centers exhibit significantly lower retirement risk. This effect is more pronounced for cleaner plants. Further estimation using accelerated failure time model shows that each standard deviation increase in post-2020 data center exposure extends plant lifespan by approximately 0.73%. Finally, we identify 585 coal-fired power generation units that are exposed to data center infrastructure, projected to emit an additional 1.952 Gt CO₂ from 2025 onward considering extended operational lifespans. This study provides the first quantification of the unintended consequences of large-scale data center construction in recent years on fossil fuel infrastructure, highlighting the necessity of integrating digital infrastructure considerations into future energy policy design and net-zero emission projections.