Conference Agenda
Overview and details of the sessions of this conference. Please select a date or location to show only sessions at that day or location. Please select a single session for detailed view (with abstracts and downloads if available).
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Climate Change Adaptation 2 Location: B004 Session Chair: Carolina Bonardi Pellizzari, University of Padua | |
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Too Hot to Go? Climate Change and the Future of Tourism and Housing Prices in the Alps 1: University of Padua, Italy; 2: Norwegian University of Life Sciences, Norway This study investigates the economic impacts of the shift in tourism toward the Alps under anticipated climate change (CC) scenarios. An interview-based contingent visitation survey was conducted with 505 tourists of the Veneto Alps (Northeastern Italy) to estimate the effects of CC on visitation. Based on two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) - based scenarios (S1) RCP 4.5 and (S2) RCP 8.5 using a combination of direct and indirect site characteristics in two peak seasons (summer and winter), the results indicate substantial differences in projected tourism behaviour. Under S2, an overall decline in overnight trips (–24.8%, p < 0.001), length of stay (–13.7%, p < 0.001), and day trips (–11.4%, p < 0.05) were observed. In contrast, S1 leads to increases of 13.8% (p < 0.001) in overnight trips and 18.5% (p < 0.05) in day trips, suggesting that certain climatic changes under S1, such as reduced rainfall or lower congestion, may be perceived as favourable, whereas the higher risk of extreme events under S2 is viewed negatively. Results also point to distinct behavioural patterns between the different types of tourism, with differing implications for the study area. As a back-of-the-envelope exercise, by using the estimated percentage changes in tourism demand together with secondary data on the number of overnight trips and total nights spent in the study area, we projected tourism demand in absolute terms for each scenario which were then used as inputs to estimate the expected changes in house prices and hotel revenues based on the new tourism levels. Results indicate an average increase in house prices of approximately 2.7% per m2 under S1 and an average decrease of 3.3% under S2. Regarding hotel revenues, an increase ranging from 11.2% in winter to 22.1% in summer was observed under S1 and a decrease of -34.4% (summer) to -36.6% (winter) under S2. Overall, the study highlights that CC is likely to reshape tourism dynamics in the Alps, highlighting the importance of developing effective adaptation strategies and early preparedness actions to sustain the nature-based tourism industry under changing climatic conditions. | |