Conference Agenda

Climate variability, marked by anomalies in temperature and precipitation, remains a “threat multiplier” and shapes the conflict and household-level food security situation in developing nations. But the economic mechanisms linking these variables remain insufficiently quantified. We used high-resolution climate and georeferenced conflict events data matched with nationally representative household panel surveys to establish this nexus. First, the study examines the impact of anomalous indicators of climate variability on localized violent conflict using the random-effects negative binomial (RENB) regression. Second, the two-stage least squares (2SLS) framework was used to establish the impact of violent conflict on household-level food security outcomes in the presence of climate variability. The findings reveal that the maximum temperature and maize price anomalies decrease conflict exposure, while the minimum temperature and precipitation anomalies significantly increase violent conflict. Furthermore, conflict and maximum temperature anomaly significantly reduce per capita food expenditure, positioning Nigeria at a serious threat to achieving food security. In contrast, minimum temperature and precipitation anomalies significantly increase food security outcomes. Economic shock mitigates the relationship between climate variability and violent conflict, and conflict and food security outcomes, suggesting the critical role of economic mechanisms in this nexus. We also found heterogeneity in conflict events and household-level food security outcomes across northern and southern geopolitical zones. These findings suggest the role of economic mechanisms in mitigating environmental shocks and provide evidence based on pathways for designing climate-resilient social safety nets in conflict-prone agricultural economies.