Conference Agenda
Overview and details of the sessions of this conference. Please select a date or location to show only sessions at that day or location. Please select a single session for detailed view (with abstracts and downloads if available).
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Thematic Session: Climate Shocks, Political Accountability, and Behavioral Responses (Streaming) Location: B134 Session Chair: Alessandro Palma, Gran Sasso Science Institute Session Chair: Ilan Noy, Gran Sasso Science Institute | |
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Natural Disasters and Electoral Consequences - Evidence for Voter Participation and Choice in U.S. Presidential Elections 1: Gran Sasso Science Institute, New Zealand; 2: Victoria University of Wellington; 3: University of Texas at Arlington This study investigates how natural disasters and federal disaster declarations influence electoral outcomes in U.S. presidential elections from 1996 to 2020. Using county-level panel data and a two-way fixed effects framework, we analyze both incumbent vote share and voter turnout to describe the mechanisms linking disasters to political accountability. We find that severe disasters significantly reduce the incumbent party's vote share, consistent with the retrospective voting hypothesis. However, Presidential Disaster Declarations (PDDs) substantially mitigate these electoral losses, particularly in politically aligned urban areas, supporting the attentive retrospection hypothesis. Disasters tend to suppress voter turnout moderately, and PDDs only partially offset this effect, suggesting that disasters primarily harm incumbents by prompting voters to switch to the opposition rather than by discouraging their supporters from participating. Categorical analyses further reveal that partisan alignment, rather than PDD issuance alone, consistently drives electoral responses. Overall, our findings highlight how institutional coordination and federal aid shape democratic accountability in the wake of natural disasters. | |