University of Bath, UK, 3-5 September 2018
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Panel 813: Brexit: Politics & Negotiations
Brexit, the EU and the Future: An Analysis of the European People’s Party in the European Parliament
University of Bath, United Kingdom
As the largest transnational party in the European Parliament (EP) with 216 MEPs, the traditionally pro-EU European People’s Party (EPP) clearly holds the most sway in terms of influencing the outcome of the Brexit negotiations from an EP perspective. The President of the European Council Donald Tusk, the President of the European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker and German Chancellor Angela Merkl’s parties are all situated in the EPP. It is also the home of the EU’s Chief Negotiator in the Brexit talks Michel Barnier and of Manfred Weber the party’s group leader, who is likely to be a key player in the signing off the Brexit deal in the Strasbourg chamber. Drawing on a mixed methods, attitudinal survey conducted by the author of EPP MEPs, the paper analyses the transnational party’s elite’s reactions to the Brexit vote and their attitudes towards the UK. Secondly, it investigates the MEPs’ perceptions with regard to impact of the vote and of potential future scenarios in terms of the UK’s relationship with the EU.
Brexit Negotiations: A Hard Bargain or Soft Consensus Ahead?
UCL, United Kingdom
This article applies negotiation theory to the ongoing Brexit talks, to assess which types of negotiation strategy are being used by each side, and in particular whether they are primarily of a hard/ antagonistic or soft/ consensual bargaining type. To assess this, I examine both the behavior exhibited by both sides so far, and the contextual factors present in the negotiations, which are typically associated with either type of negotiation strategy. Attention is paid not only to the negotiations as a whole, but also to the different areas of the talks and to the incentives present on each side of the negotiations. I find that the peculiar nature of the Brexit negotiations makes it particularly suited to a hard bargaining strategy, which could result in a sub-optimal outcome for both sides. Nonetheless, certain aspects of the negotiations can be expected to be of a more soft/ consensual nature, and it can also be expected that negotiation strategies will become softer as the negotiations progress.
Of what is Brexit an Example?
University of Surrey
The UK’s decision to withdraw from the European Union represents a major potential challenge to our understanding of contemporary global governance. As a repost to the tendency towards the deepening of linkages between states, Brexit merits further inspection. But there remains a more basic question of what framework is most appropriate to analyse the situation. In formal terms, the UK is leaving an International Organisation, but there appear to be many points of similarity with a succession process. To disentangle this, we provide a typology of both models, grounded in a review of post-1945 examples, which highlight the particularities of Brexit. The effects are not only of relevance to the departing entity, but also the remaining one, for which the a key concern will be contagion or domino effects: our analysis underlines the important of power and homogeneity in modulating the likelihood of this, while also noting how Brexit introduces a new dimension of entanglement to political actors’ calculations. The paper suggests that in the wider context of more profound inter-state relations, more attention will have to be given to the possibility, occurrence and impact of withdrawal.
The Brexit Negotiations: Theresa May's Two or Three-Level Game
Université Paris Sorbonne Nouvelle, France
Robert Putnam's traditional two-level game theory posits that a complex international negotiation takes place both at the domestic level, where agreement needs to be found on a common position, and at the international level where a government needs to reach a compromise that will be acceptable by its constituency. In the case of the Brexit negotiations taking place in Brussels, Prime Minister Theresa May needs to accommodate not just her party constituency, itself divided over what kind of deal should be pursued, but also the constituent parts of the UK, some of which (Scotland and Northern Ireland) voted to remain in the EU. This makes an already complex negotiation even more intractable, raising questions about their outcome.
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