Conference Agenda
Overview and details of the sessions of this conference. Please select a date or location to show only sessions at that day or location. Please select a single session for detailed view (with abstracts and downloads if available).
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Daily Overview |
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General
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| Presentations | ||
2:00pm - 2:20pm
From Bands to Rates: Modelling Council Tax Reform and Its Impact on UK Housing Markets 1: University of Glasgow, United Kingdom; 2: University of Surrey, United Kingdom Property taxes are part of the financial expenses that affect housing market dynamics. In the UK, this includes a monthly paid council tax, which is perceived as an expense similar to mortgage repayments or rents. Such council tax allocates houses to band system based on their values on 1 April 1991 in England and Scotland. Due to different geospatial changes in prices since 1991, this leads to mismatches between the allocated council taxes and current housing prices. Accordingly, council tax reforms have been proposed in different financial reports. However, their impacts on the housing financial decisions of households, and accordingly on prices and rents, have not been explored. To address this, we introduce a UK housing Agent-Based Model (ABM) embedding council taxes in the financial behaviours of market actors. We applied a set of experiments testing transitioning from a band-based system to a rate on price system at different percentages. The ABM demonstrates potential interconnected dynamics between the mortgage and rent market. The results show: (1) high (low) council tax rates decrease (increase) prices and rents; and (2) high council tax rates make tenants more prone to immediate evictions as their savings cannot cover the increases in council tax, compared to wealthier home owners. 2:20pm - 2:40pm
Modeling Urban Shrinkage: Population, Fiscal Capacity, and Public Services in Japanese Municipalities Shibaura Institute of Technology, Japan Japan is experiencing rapid population decline and aging, which present serious challenges for the fiscal sustainability of local governments, particularly in rural areas and small municipalities. This study develops a system dynamics model covering approximately 1,700 municipalities nationwide to analyze the dynamic interactions among population, fiscal conditions, and quality of life (QOL) from 2015 to 2050. The model integrates cohort-based population projections with endogenous feedback relationships among population change, tax revenues and fiscal expenditures, public service provision, and migration. Three policy scenarios are examined: promotion of rural migration, reduction of intergovernmental transfers (local allocation tax), and urban consolidation policies. The simulation results show that these policy interventions have only limited effects on the long-term trajectory of total population. Instead, their impacts appear primarily in changes in inter-municipal disparities in QOL, fiscal burden, and levels of public service provision. These findings suggest that while population decline is strongly constrained by structural demographic dynamics, policy interventions may influence the distribution of living conditions and fiscal capacity across regions rather than substantially altering overall population size. 2:40pm - 2:55pm
Playing the percentages: A model of doping regulation in sport 1: The University of Melbourne, Australia; 2: Leveragepoint Consulting; 3: Outliers Research and Design In this work in progress, an agent-based model of a competitive sporting league was constructed to reflect dynamics contained within a population of competitive athletes and support personnel. The aim of the model was to act as a policy test-bed to enable the regulator to understand the potential effects of a balance of anti-doping measures on a simulated population. Modelled athletes were required to compete for resources while also being presented with options to dope in order to gain a performance advantage. Against the doping incentives present in the system, the model observer acted as a doping regulator, administering activities associated with testing, education, and enforcement to suppress doping activity. Rates of doping over time were observed alongside the balance of regulatory activities conducted by the regulator. Results demonstrated that striking a financially stable balance between testing, education, and enforcement activities to keep doping rates low was difficult, with regulators frequently caught in a financial 'death spiral'. Successful regulation strategies went beyond targeting individual athletes to also influence their broader, professional support network. | ||
