Conference Agenda
Overview and details of the sessions of this conference. Please select a date or location to show only sessions at that day or location. Please select a single session for detailed view (with abstracts and downloads if available).
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Daily Overview |
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Modelling food systems
Combined tracks: Diet and AgriCULTURE
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AgriCULTURE: Simulation models of Social and Institutional Processes in Agri-Food and Land-Use Systems<> Agri-food and land-use systems are central to some of the most pressing global challenges of our time. These systems provide essential goods for our everyday lives, yet they also act as key drivers of climate change and biodiversity loss. Advancing sustainability transitions in these systems requires a deeper understanding of the social, cultural, economic, and institutional processes as well as socio-ecological interactions that shape food production and consumption choices. Modelling Diet Change: Sustainable Food System Transformation Food systems are one of the high potential towards a more sustainable future. More and more scholars are interested in dietary change (e.g. how do eat less meat or increase fibre and plants to our diets), and modellers haven’t been sitting still either. | ||
| Presentations | ||
11:30am - 11:50am
Agent Based Modeling of Food Environments: A Scoping Review with a Focus on Access Representations. 1: CIHEAMM-IAMM Montpellier, France; 2: CIRAD, Montpellier, France; 3: KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium Food environments shape food acquisition, diet-related health outcomes, and food securi-ty, yet the relationship between individuals and food environments remains difficult to capture through approaches focused on isolated variables. Agent-based models (ABMs) offer a useful way to address this complexity by representing heterogeneous actors, their decision rules, and the environments in which they interact. This paper presents an ongo-ing scoping review of ABMs applied to food environments, with a focus on how food access is represented and how interactions between individuals and food environments are modeled. A Web of Science search identified 193 records; after document-type filter-ing and deduplication, 176 records were screened, resulting in a final corpus of 32 stud-ies. Preliminary findings show that this literature is relatively recent, interdisciplinary, and fragmented. Most studies are geographically explicit, empirically informed, and policy relevant. Accessibility is most often represented through economic and spatial dimen-sions, while temporal and social or cultural dimensions appear less frequently. Likewise, although many models include heterogeneous consumers, relatively few explicitly incor-porate peer-network effects, social norms, or adaptive learning. These findings suggest that current ABM applications to food environments remain more developed in represent-ing material and spatial aspects of access than socially embedded processes. 11:50am - 12:05pm
Developing theoretical and empirical insights of dietary change using a modular agent-based model of UK meat consumption University of Exeter, United Kingdom We model UK meat consumption with a modular agent-based model to explore how diets change under different theoretical assumptions and implementations, focusing on the theory of reasoned action, and habit theory. The model is data-driven using national survey data, and economic statistics. We validate the model against meat consumption data from the OECD. The model makes a novel contribution to understanding sustainable dietary change by utilising a modular design which provides a customisable platform to test intervention scenarios under explicit assumptions. 12:05pm - 12:20pm
Which Mechanisms Matter in Dietary Choices? 1: Utrecht University, The Netherlands; 2: Amsterdam UMC, The Netherlands Agent-based models (ABMs) are increasingly used to study 12:20pm - 12:40pm
Front-of-package warning labels and the dynamics of purchasing decisions in ultra-processed food consumption: a computational model Pontificia Universidad Javeriana, Colombia An increasing body of literature underscores the adverse health outcomes associated with ultra-processed food consumption. These foods have been linked to type 2 diabetes, heart disease, and increased mortality. Public health authorities worldwide have employed various strategies to raise awareness among consumers. One such strategy is the use of front-of-package labels. Front-of-package warning labels aim to discourage excessive consumption of sugary drinks and ultra-processed foods – both categories being energy-dense and nutrient-poor. Our proposal focuses on inspecting the dynamics of consumption dynamics when consumers are exposed to prod-ucts containing front-of-package warning labels. We aim to identify the po-tential impact of different factors that influence food consumption dynamics. To that end, we collected data that helped us to quantify consumer preferences and factors affecting purchasing decisions. We built an (agent-based) computational model that captures consumption dynamics based on belief functions calibrated according to mathematical formulations of partial evi-dence. The model explores how consumers make purchasing decisions when faced with warning labels on products containing excess sugar, sodium, and saturated fats. 12:40pm - 12:55pm
Future scenarios for urban agriculture and food security in sub-Saharan Africa: Modelling the urban land-food system in an agent-based approach 1: Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, KU Leuven, Belgium; 2: Research Foundation Flanders (FWO), Belgium; 3: International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria; 4: Environmental Intelligence Unit, Vlaamse Instelling voor Technologisch Onderzoek (VITO), Mol, Belgium Food systems in sub-Saharan African cities are increasingly pressured by rapid urban sprawl and socio-economic changes. While land conversion from cropland to built-up area is limiting the opportunity for urban agriculture, food demand is rising because of population growth and changing diets. Meanwhile, socio-economic segregation – often associated with urbanization - can hinder access to food. For the case study of Kampala (Uganda), we spatiotemporally model the land-food system using an agent-based approach. Based on 747 household surveys, we recalibrated the Agent-based model of Social Segregation and Urban Expansion (ASSURE) by Vermeiren et al. (2016) and included food system dynamics to assess future trajectories (2020–2040) of Kampala's dependency on urban agriculture. While food that is both produced and consumed within the city is often considered the most resilient food source in times of crisis, we show that it is particularly this source that is threatened. Overall, about 10 % of the urban and peri-urban agricultural land in Kampala is projected to disappear by 2040. This may lead to decreased levels of food security and dietary diversity, particularly for households that strongly rely on urban agriculture. Information on the links between urban growth and local food provision is essential for planners who aim to develop strategies for more secure, just and sustainable African urban food systems. | ||
