Conference Program

The study investigates how demographic, familial, and behavioural factors shape educational aspirations and university attendance among students with an immigrant background in Italy, adopting a longitudinal perspective. Over the past three decades, migration flows have significantly increased the presence of immigrant-origin students in Italian schools, raising important questions about their integration and educational trajectories. Persistent inequalities remain between immigrant-origin and native peers, often linked to socio-economic disadvantage, limited cultural capital, and reduced parental familiarity with the Italian education system.

The analysis addresses a key gap in the literature: the relationship between aspirations expressed during upper secondary school and their actual fulfilment through university enrolment and continued attendance. While numerous studies have examined the determinants of aspirations, far fewer have assessed whether these expectations translate into concrete educational outcomes, largely due to the scarcity of longitudinal data. To overcome this limitation, the study links the 2015 “Integration of the Second Generation” survey conducted by Istat with administrative data from the MIUR on university enrolments from 2015 to 2022. This unique dataset makes it possible to follow students across the transition to higher education and to analyse both enrolment and continuity of studies.

The theoretical framework draws on expectancy-value theory, which emphasises the role of motivation, perceived competence, and subjective evaluations in shaping educational choices. At the same time, the study engages with the so-called aspiration–achievement paradox: immigrant-origin students often report high educational aspirations but achieve comparatively lower outcomes. Two main explanations are considered. The immigrant optimism hypothesis attributes high aspirations to the positive self-selection and ambition of migrant families, while blocked opportunities theory suggests that structural disadvantages in the labour market encourage immigrant families to view education as the primary route to upward mobility. Despite strong motivation, structural constraints—such as concentration in vocational tracks and higher dropout risks—may limit the realisation of ambitions.

Using regression models, the study examines how personal characteristics (gender, citizenship, age at arrival), family background (parental education, socio-economic conditions), school factors (track, prior performance), and subjective resources (self-confidence, perceived academic success) influence both aspirations and their fulfilment. Particular attention is devoted to gender differences. Descriptive findings reveal a marked female advantage: girls are more likely to aspire to university, to enrol, and to persist in their studies. However, patterns vary across citizenship groups, and the determinants of success may differ between boys and girls.

Overall, the findings highlight the complex interplay between structural resources and individual motivations in shaping the educational trajectories of immigrant-origin youth. While aspirations are generally high, their translation into university attendance depends strongly on socio-economic conditions, academic pathways, and migration-related factors. By identifying the conditions that enable students to achieve their goals, the study provides evidence to inform policies aimed at reducing inequalities and supporting the long-term educational success of young people with a migrant background in Italy.